Yankees Simulation: Transactions from FanSided Winter Meetings
The 2018 FanSided Winter Meetings have concluded, and as the fake general manager of the Yankees, I have to say I’m quite pleased with the faux acquisitions I made to better the club for the future. However, you be the judge.
And just like that, the 2018 FanSided Winter Meetings have come to a close. For those that didn’t catch my introductory article, this is the second consecutive year that each of the 30 FanSided MLB blogs got together to run this simulation. As the co-site expert of Yanks Go Yard since June 2016, I took the chair as fake Yankees general manager.
It’s every fantasy baseball participants dream to wheel and deal as they see fit, especially when in control of an organization with deep pockets and a few holes to fill, such as the Yanks.
Hopefully, you agree with some of the mock trades and signings I pulled off. Although they have no relevance to what real-life GM Brian Cashman will potentially do this offseason, I did my best to stay as realistic as possible, reverting to many of the articles I’ve written from this past campaign.
What are some examples of keepin’ it real, you ask? For instance, there was a number of bidding wars, namely on Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuckel and Marwin Gonzalez. Yeah, even Marwin got in on the action.
Sure, it would have been easy to throw caution to the wind and offer Harper half a billion dollars, or Corbin (who in my mind isn’t a true No. 1) $150 million, but I refrained. Despite the luxury tax being reset in 2019 to $206 million, there’s a breaking point on every player not named Mike Trout.
FYI, should the Angels allow Trout to reach free agency following the 2020 season, we may very well see baseball’s first-lifetime contract. And no, Bobby Bonilla’s extended deal from the Mets doesn’t count.
Without further ado, let’s reveal the results of this year’s simulation.
My first trade was a blockbuster
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Anyone and everyone that begins talking about the needs of the Yankees this offseason usually starts and finishes the conversation with addressing the needs of the starting rotation.
And while Luis Severino will likely rebound from his 2018 second-half struggles, the 24-year-old needs someone to help take the glare off of each and every start he makes.
While rumors have swirled for weeks that James Paxton of the Mariners and Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco of the Indians could be had via trade, each come with their own question marks.
Now I did my due diligence and contacted the Indians faux-GM right away. He made it clear that unless I offered four top 20 prospects, Kluber wouldn’t be going anywhere since this gentleman preferred to keep the former Cy Young winner — and instead deal Carrasco.
For Kluber, he’s entering his age-33 season and has struggled mightily in each of the past two postseasons. His teammate, Carlos Carrasco, will turn 32 this season, has only twice appeared in a playoff contest and in my eyes, is too similar to Masahiro Tanaka.
As for Paxton, who is coming off a career-year that saw him throw two complete games and a no-hitter, the “Big Maple” still only managed to throw a career-high 160.1 innings. I get that when healthy, Paxton can dominate a game, as his 208:42 K:BB ratio in 2018 will attest; however, “trading the farm” for a guy that spent the majority of the first five years of his MLB career on the disabled list wasn’t a risk I was willing to take.
Yes, throwing big money at free agent pitchers Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel was an option, but when I tell you how many millions they commanded, you’ll understand why I quickly pulled out of negotiations.
Instead, I focused on a three-time World Series Champion that is still just 29-years-old and is set to make an uber-affordable $12 million in 2019 — Madison Bumgarner.
A package of players that didn’t include Miguel Andujar
Before anyone points out Bumgarner’s recent trips to the disabled list, both injuries have been freak. First, he fell off a dirt bike during the 2017 offseason; then he was hit with a comebacker last spring. Therefore I’m not concerned.
Naturally, some within baseball circles are worried about Mad Bum’s decreased efficiency in regards to his four-seam fastball. Last season, Bumgarner’s 91-mph fastball, which has never been his main pitch (that being his cutter), was swung/fouled 42.2 percent of the time with a 14.45 percent whiff rate.
I believe that much of Bumgarner’s mediocrity in ’18 was two-fold; missing the first two months of the season, in addition to playing for an underachieving Giants team that finished 73-89.
The 10-year veteran still managed a 3.26 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 129.2 innings pitched. Perhaps most impressive when considering how Bumgarner might perform at Yankee Stadium is that his 84-mph changeup is still a highly-effective groundball inducing pitch — put on the ground 60.78 percent of the time last season.
Now you’re probably wondering what I traded for the former World Series MVP. The package of players was robust but far less than what Cleveland wanted for Kluber — and no, Miguel Andujar wasn’t dealt.
The deal consisted of our top two overall prospects, Justus Sheffield and Estevan Florial, No. 7 prospect Domingo Acevedo and reliever Ben Heller.
As much I would have preferred to keep Sheffield, there was just no way. Each team I spoke with regarding an ace immediately demanded the 22-year-old left-hander. Florial was another name that directly spewed from the mouth of rival GMs.
Personally, I’m not as in love with Florial as others, and if you look at where his development currently stands, his arrival to the majors is at least two full seasons away. This Yankees team needs to win now!
Although Acevedo was promoted to the Bronx in 2018, he never took the hill and was swiftly sent back to Double-A Trenton. Scouts have mixed feelings about the soon-to-be-25-year-old — and feel he may eventually end up in the bullpen.
The final piece, Ben Heller, underwent Tommy John surgery in April and is expected to miss most of 2019. Needless to say, I was surprised the Giants asked for him by name.
All-in-all, I valued Bumgarner’s postseason acumen and reasonable contract much more than having to overpay for non-ace-types such as Corbin or Keuchel. Not only is Bumgarner younger than both but he’s a proven commodity that is 8-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.899 WHIP across 16 postseason appearances.
Sonny Gray traded to the Reds
Believe it or not, I had a good deal of interest in the former A’s ace. However, as you can imagine, no one was willing to part with anywhere near the level of prospects the Yanks originally sent to Oakland for Pickles.
For a split second, I considered holding onto Gray and making him the go-to long-reliever. But then I imagined manager Aaron Boone having to thrust Gray into a starting role in the event of an injury and the possible negative ramifications should he get lit like a Roman candle.
With a projected arbitration number of $9.1 million by MLB Trade Rumors, I eventually decided it was a wiser choice to get what I could for Gray, and instead, use his salary on a free agent.
The first offer I got for the 29-year-old Vanderbilt product was from the Nationals. Unfortunately, they were low-balling me with a package of mid-level prospects including No. 23 prospect, pitcher Luis Reyes and No. 29, infielder Drew Ward. Neither got me very excited.
The Braves then offered 36-year-old reliever, Darren O’Day, straight up. Considering his age and history of injury, it was a hard pass.
Soon after, the Reds came calling. Their initial offer was one of Billy Hamilton, Scott Schebler or Wandy Peralta. Although I pondered the idea of Schebler’s left-handed stick in Yankee Stadium (57 home runs over the past two seasons), there wouldn’t be room on the roster for a sixth outfielder (should Clint Frazier be ready to go).
Instead, I expressed my desire for prospects, which the Reds faux GM countered by offering Shed Long, an athletic 23-year-old second baseman (the Reds No. 8 prospect). The left-handed hitting Long slashed .261/.353/.412 with 75 runs, 22 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBIs an 19 stolen bases at Double-A Pensacola in 2018. Long may not have been a necessity, but he helps restock the farm system and could very well grow into a significant trade chip down the line.
However, I also wanted some sort of pitching prospect in the deal. We eventually settled on right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey. Though the 25-year-old struggled in eight appearances for the Reds last season, he was dominant at Triple-A Louisville; going 7-2 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.176 WHIP and 65 strikeouts in 51 innings.
If Rainey can get better command of the strike zone (5.1 BB/9), he’s got closer-like stuff, using a fastball-slider combination that propelled him to a 15.1 K/9 in 2017. With his 100-mph fastball, Rainey is at least deserving of an invite to Spring Training.
The return of Andrew Miller
Heading into the simulation, I knew I wanted to reunite with Andrew Miller. After all, when healthy, which he wasn’t a whole lot of in ’18 (34 innings pitched), Miller is still one of the most electric relievers in the game — especially with his sweeping 83-mph two-plane slider.
The return of Miller’s groundball inducing 94-mph two-seamer will be much appreciated (career 45 percent groundball rate on the pitch).
Entering his age-34 season, Miller was still in high demand, as we were one of four clubs to bid on his services. And although my offer of three years, $30 million, came with less of an AAV than what the Nationals offered, $12.5 million (two years, $25 million), Miller’s desire to return to the Bronx won out. Remember, this is a guy that never wanted to leave in the first place.
What does that mean for Zach Britton, whom the Yanks acquired from the Orioles in July?
Despite the fact he was working his way back from an Achilles injury, I wasn’t thrilled with Britton’s performance in pinstripes. Even still, I fully intended to pursue him should Miller look elsewhere.
However, in the end, Britton jumped on a 3-year, $36 million offer from the Nats to become their closer. Can’t say I blame Britton for wanting the ball in the ninth inning.
As for David Robertson, he, unfortunately, decided yet again that he’d prefer to take a higher salary and pitch elsewhere: Robertson chose a three-year, $33 million offer from the Twins to be their closer. We, the Yanks, did what we could to keep D-Rob, sending a three-year, $30 million deal his way, but the appeal of being a sixth-inning option in a dominant ‘pen wasn’t enough.
The loss of Roberston puts more of an onus of getting Chad Green to pitch like his 2017 self and not ’18. It wouldn’t hurt if Tommy Kahnle did the same. Jonathan Holder’s spot in the bullpen will also be elevated — as he proved ready, able and willing last season.
J.A. Happ is back at a reasonable price
Yeah, yeah, J.A. Happ was whipped by the Red Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS — I get it. No, five runs on four hits in two innings didn’t leave a pleasant taste in any Yankee fans’ mouths, but he was still excellent during the regular season.
Not only was Happ 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.052 WHIP and 63:16 K:BB ratio for New York down the stretch, but as a whole, he was a combined 17-6 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.131 WHIP and 193:51 K:BB across 177.2 innings in 2018.
As to keep with reality, I put in a strong bid for Patrick Corbin. Even after trading for Madison Bumgarner, I wanted Corbin to be my No. 3 — thereby moving Masahiro Tanaka down a slot and rounding out the rotation with C.C. Sabathia.
I offered five years and $100 million for the two-time All-Star. However, four other bids by hungry teams would eclipse mine. In the end, Corbin settled for a 5-year, $150 million contract from the Phillies. I’m sorry, but a $30 million AAV for a 56-54 career pitcher entering his age-30 season was a bit too rich for my blood.
My second option was Dallas Keuchel. And even though Keuchel recently said he would shave off his beard to pitch for the Yanks, he decided that five years and $105 million from us wasn’t quite enough, as he eventually took a five-year, $110 million contract from the Nationals. Really?
Therefore I immediately proceeded to Happ, sending him a two-year, $24 million offer. I had a feeling he wouldn’t accept a million dollars less than he made in 2018, but it was worth a shot.
The cellar-dwelling White Sox countered with two years, $30 million which pushed my offer to two-years, $38 million. Although I may have gotten Happ for a few million less, I didn’t want to play games after losing both Corbin and Keuchel.
Should manager Aaron Boone slot Bumgarner at No. 2, Happ would fall in nicely behind Tanaka at No. 4, keeping the righty/left order mostly intact. Happ’s return gives prospects like Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams and Domingo German extra time to round into form before being thrust, yet again, into the big league rotation.
What Daniel Murphy means for Manny Machado
Considered by many FanSided GM’s as the steal of the Fake Winter Meetings (go ahead, ask them), I signed Daniel Murphy to a one-year, $10 million deal (he made $12 million last season).
But what about Manny Machado, you ask?
I did what I could, within reason. Though there was no reward for being first in line for “Johnny Hustle,” I did get the opening bid in for the four-time All-Star: 10 years, $275 million. The Cardinals knocked my proposal off the board, so I came back with 10 years, $325 million.
That large a figure scared me, but I was still mostly confident. As it turns out, the Phillies offered $20 million more before the White Sox blew everyone else away with 10 years, $355 million. I can honestly say, a $35.5 million AAV wasn’t something I ever planned on offering Machado, not after his numerous postseason indiscretions.
With Didi Gregorius expected to be out of action until at least June, Gleyber Torres will shift to his natural position of shortstop, allowing Murphy to man second. However, Murphy is a below-average fielder, despite the fact he has played first, second, third and left field during his 10-year career.
However, I signed Murphy because of his consistent left-handed stick. Despite only playing in 91 games due to injury in 2018, the former Met hit .299/.336/.454 with 40 runs, 15 doubles, 12 homers and 42 RBIs with only 40 strikeouts in 328 at-bats between Washington and Chicago.
To protect the lineup until Sir Didi’s return, I also inked former Gold Glove winner and All-Star Brian Dozier to a one-year, $8 million deal. Though Dozier’s time with the Dodgers was less than stellar, he still managed to hit 21 homers and drive in 82 runs between LA and Minnesota while playing the majority of the campaign hurt.
Coming off a phenomenal 2017 season that saw Dozier slash .271/.359/.458 with 106 runs, 30 doubles, 34 home runs, 93 RBIs and 16 stolen bases, I expect much better results from the Dozier, who is happily back in the AL. Dozier’s playing time will depend on Luke Voit and if he can capitalize on his 2018 late-season surge.
Should Voit turn into Shane Spencer (as many suggest), Boone could move Murphy to first base and place Dozier at his customary second — making the infield defense that much stronger, without losing much power.
Bryce Harper is a rich, rich man
Just to be clear, I never made any type of offer to Bryce Harper. However, that didn’t stop a feeding frenzy of activity for the 2015 NL MVP.
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In total, there were seven bids. The Nats did their best to keep their homegrown player at 12 years, $440 million, but it wasn’t enough. The White Sox came close to adding Harper to go with Machado, but 12 years and $462 million fell short.
When the dust settled, it was the Phillies and their nearly half a billion dollar contract that won out (12 years, $485 million to be exact).
Another name that garnered quite a bit of attention was Marwin Gonzalez. Due to his versatility, the former Astro secured a five-year, $90 million contract from the Giants. It’s a typical San Francisco move — spend big on a veteran only to likely regret it soon after. They also gave Joe Kelly three years, $24 million and Adam Jones one-year, $9 million. Some clubs never learn.
Oher notable signing includes:
- Josh Donaldson signed with the Cardinals for two years, $40M.
- Craig Kimbrel re-signed with the Red Sox for four years, $68M. As did Nate Eovaldi for four years, $60M and World Series MVP Steve Pearce for two years, $14M.
- Yusei Kikuchi will join countryman and AL Rookie of the Year, Shohei Ohtani with the Angels for five years, $60M. The Halos also inked Gio Gonzalez for two years, $24M.
- Nick Markakis went to the Indians on a two-year, $28M deal. Matt Harvey also heads to Cleveland for one-year, $5.5M.
- Wilson Ramos is now a Phillie at two years, $32M.
- Nelson Cruz is going to to the Astros on a two-year, $30M deal.
- Former Yankee, Andrew McCutchen received a two-year, $16M contract from the Rays.
- Jed Lowrie joined the Mariners for three years and $30M.
- A.J. Pollock will be going to the Reds on a three-year, $48M contract.
- Mike Moustakas heads to the Twins one a one-year, $16 million deal.
- D.J. Lamahieu signed with the Giants for three years, $36M.
- Michael Brantley took his talents to Seattle for four years, $45M.
To surmise, I’m delighted with the way this mock/fake/simulation turned out. The Yankees were able to get an undisputed No. 1 pitcher in Madison Bumgarner, trade Sonny Gray for a pair of promising young talents, bring back a stellar left-handed reliever in Andrew Miller, re-sign J.A. Happ and get Daniel Murphy and Brian Dozier as cheap alternatives to Manny Machado.
Maybe Brian Cashman will give this a gander for some inspiration. Hey, it can’t hurt.