Yankees Rumors: Should they pursue LHP James Paxton?

It’s no secret that Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman is in search of starting pitching. In fact, the general manager has repeatedly said that pitching is the team’s top priority this offseason, whether through free agency or the trade market. Could Mariners’ LHP James Paxton be an ideal trade candidate?

As the GM meetings began on November 6, it was reported by Jon Heyman of Fancred that the Yankees had interest in three high-profile starters: Indians’ righties Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, and Mariners’ LHP James Paxton.

Additionally, chatter erupted Tuesday morning on social media that the Seattle Mariners were going into “full rebuild mode”. As the day progressed, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi provided some clarification on these rumors:

This got me thinking, is Paxton really worth the same haul that Kluber and Carrasco may require?

My belief…no. Let me break it down.

The lefty made his big league debut in 2013, only making four starts. From 2014-15, Paxton was only able to make 26 starts (13 starts each season) due to multiple injuries, including a strained lat muscle in 2014, and a strained tendon in his left middle finger in 2015. However, he was effective in his limited time, pitching to a 3.45 ERA across 141.0 IP with 115 K in those two seasons combined.

The 2016 campaign marked the first time that Paxton was able to eclipse the “20 games started” marker. In 121.0 IP, the Canada native finished 6-7 with a 3.79 ERA. Not outstanding, but certainly respectable for a guy that had overcome an abundance of time on the D.L.

In 2017, “The Big Maple” threw for a 2.98 ERA in 24 starts, while striking out 156 batters in only 136.0 IP. Again, Paxton was bitten by the injury bug and dealt with a left forearm strain and a strained pectoral muscle throughout that season.

And finally, the 2018 season. Arguably the best season of the lefty’s career thus far, Paxton pitched a career-high in games started, innings pitched, and strikeouts. In 28 starts, Paxton was 11-6 with a 3.76 ERA and collected 208 K across 160.1 IP. Additionally, the left-hander threw a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays, the second time a Canadian-born pitcher has accomplished this feat.

By glance, you may say that the 30-year old had a really nice year. He certainly did, not stellar, but really good for a Mariners team that had trouble finding effective starting pitching throughout the season.

However, let’s dig a little deeper.

In the first half (before the All-Star Break), Paxton made 20 of his 28 starts for the season and only allowed 16 homers in that span. Additionally, batters posted a .218/.273/.376 slash line against the 6’4″ Paxton. Personally, it blows my mind that the lefty wasn’t selected to the AL All-Star team.

However, the second half was a different story. Paxton was only able to make eight starts in the second half due to lower back inflammation, in addition to dealing with an illness. In those eight starts, Paxton allowed seven homers and hitters posted a slash line of .240/.282/.416.

While certainly a smaller sample size, hitters saw an increase in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage against the lefty. Additionally, seven home runs allowed in just 41.0 IP in the second half is quite alarming.

Additionally, he only posted a 108 ERA+ for the 2018 season. In case you are unaware, ERA+ is simply just a pitcher’s ballpark and league adjusted ERA. If a pitcher has a 100 ERA+, that is considered average.

It doesn’t take a rocket science to tell you that a 108 ERA+ isn’t outstanding by any means. Just for reference, Luis Severino had a 129 ERA+ and Masahiro Tanaka compiled a 116 ERA+ for the season.

Even in a “pitcher-friendly” ballpark in Safeco Field, Paxton’s 2018 numbers were just lackluster. I can’t imagine this translating well at Yankee Stadium, especially with the dimensions out in right field.

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Lastly, Seattle’s wish list of prospects would be substantial. The M’s likely begin trade talks with  LHP Justus Sheffield and/or OF Estevan Florial, plus a few mid-level prospects. However, the lefty isn’t arbitration eligible until 2019 and won’t be a free agent until 2021.

If I’m Brian Cashman, and it’s imminent you will have to trade your top prospects for a front-line starting pitcher, wouldn’t you want that pitcher to have a consistent track record like Kluber or Madison Bumgarner? With all due respect to Carrasco, but he’s simply not on the same level as Kluber or Bumgarner.

Based on mediocre results, his inconsistency to stay on the field, and the large demand a trade may require, the smart move is to stay far away from Paxton. The Yankees desperately need help with the starting rotation, even with the addition of C.C. Sabathia on Tuesday, but Paxton simply isn’t a bonafide and proven ace.

I’m all for trading prospects in the right deal, however, I don’t think dealing for Paxton is a wise one for the Yankees.