Yankees and Luis Severino set to face familiar foe Nathan Eovaldi in Game 3

The Yankees and Red Sox are all squared up 1-1 as the ALDS shifts to the Bronx for Game 3 Monday night. The stadium should be rocking all night as Luis Severino will take the mound opposite familiar foe Nathan Eovaldi who will get the nod for Boston.

Thanks to the exploits of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez in Game 2 the Yankees will have a chance to finish off Boston in front of their home crowd with two more wins and advance to the ALCS. Tonight will mark the second start of the postseason for Luis Severino after he helped lead the Yankees to a 7-2 win over Oakland in last week’s Wild Card game. Sevy only went four innings but he was outstanding, not allowing a run and striking out seven before he handed the ball off to the Yankee bullpen to finish the job.

After going through a terrible stretch for much of the second half Sevy has pitched more like the ace that he is over his last four outings. He’s attacking hitters and painting his fastball with his usual high velocity and he’s gotten a feel back for his wipeout slider. When he’s on he’s the best starter in the Yankees rotation and on normal rest, he should be ready to deliver another strong outing tonight.

On the other side will be the former Yankee Eovaldi who pitched two up and down seasons in New York back in 2015 and 2016. His time with the Yanks ended with an injury after he underwent Tommy John surgery in August of ’16 which forced him to miss the entire 2017 season. This year he started his season with Tampa and pitched pretty well before he was traded to the Red Sox prior to the July 31st trade deadline. Eovaldi is a different pitcher than the one he was with the Yankees and so far this season he has dominated his old club.

Eovaldi vs. Yankees in 2018: 4 GS, 1.93 ERA, 23.1 IP, 14 H, 18 K’s, .173 AVG

Eovaldi still relies heavily on his fastball that can reach upwards of 100mph but he also features a nasty cutter as his out pitch that he can throw up to 95 mph. It’s the cutter that has given Yankee hitters fits when facing him this season because it has late break which forces a lot of weak contact and quick outs. When he was a Yankee his out pitch was a split-changeup which he doesn’t throw nearly as much.

The Yankees lineup he’ll be facing is obviously right-handed heavy which bodes well for Eovaldi, but it’s still a lineup that can hurt you from top to bottom. One thing the Yankees have done so far this series is work a lot of deep counts, something they’ve struggled to do against Eovaldi this season. In every start against the Yanks, he’s kept his pitch count down because he throws a lot of strikes and gets easy outs with that cutter.

The goal for the Yankees is to make him work so they can get into that shaky Boston bullpen as early as possible. However, they also can’t be falling behind in counts and pass on good pitches to hit because than Eovaldi could have another lengthy start.

One key player for the Yanks will be Didi Gregorius who along with Brett Gardner or Aaron Hicks will be one of the two left-handed hitters in tonight’s lineup. Earlier in the season, Didi took his former teammate deep and in his career, he’s hitting .333 against him in 15 at-bats. Didi’s gotten off to a slow start this postseason with two infield singles in 11 at-bats, but playing at home with that short porch in right field could lead to a break out night for him.

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On the other side, Luis Severino is looking to build off his last start at home against Boston on September 19th where he dominated over seven innings only allowing one run. It was the best Sevy has looked all second half and another great effort from him at his home ballpark. This season he went 10-2 at Yankee Stadium with a 2.74 ERA and 110 strikeouts, and against Boston, he went 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA (2-0, 1.31 ERA at home).

One hitter he’ll have to be extra careful with is Andrew Benintendi who has hit over .400 against Sevy with 2 HR and 10 RBI in his career. Like Didi, the short porch in right is his friend so Sevy needs to make sure he’s pitching to Benintendi with the bases empty.

The starters will have a big impact on the first four to five innings but once again it will likely come down to which bullpen can get big outs in the later innings. The Yankees pen has a clear advantage over Boston’s relief core and playing at home should give them a big edge as well. The Yanks are already 1-0 in the Bronx this postseason after going 6-0 at home last October. And as good as Eovaldi’s pitched against the Yankees this season he’s never pitched in an atmosphere like the one he’ll experience tonight so there’s no way of knowing how he’ll respond.

It’s not going to be an easy task for the Yanks to take a commanding 2-1 series lead, but at home, with their ace on the mound, a fresh bullpen and a raucous crowd behind them, I sure like their chances.