Yankees: Is Masahiro Tanaka still the best option to start Wild Card game?

Wednesday night Luis Severino delivered his best start of the second half with a dominant performance in the Yankees 10-1 win over the Red Sox. In the process, he inserted his name back into the conversation to start the AL Wild Card game.

The Yankees have waited all second half for Sevy to return to his pre-All-Star break form and over his last two starts, it looks like he’s finally back to his old self. It’s been a difficult couple of months for Sevy who came into Wednesday with a 6.35 ERA in the second half, but after limiting the best team in baseball to just one run over seven innings it’s clear that he has turned a corner.

You don’t just shutout a lineup like Boston’s by accident and because of that Severino just made Aaron Boone’s decision on who will start the October 3rd Wild Card game that much more difficult.  However, since he struggled so much before his last two starts he’s probably still not the leading candidate to get the start. Although, if he continues to pitch like he did Wednesday night over his final two starts it will be hard for Boone to ignore going with his ace.

Coming into his start Thursday night Masahiro Tanaka had to be the leader in the clubhouse to get the start, considering he’s been the Yankees best pitcher during the second half. Tanaka had allowed one run over his last three starts over 21 innings with 24 strikeouts and two walks. He’s been absolutely dominant but the Red Sox humbled him a bit scoring five runs on eight hits over innings to help them clinch the Al East title avoid a sweep.

Despite Tanaka’s rough outing let’s remember how good he’s been all second half and how clutch he has been throughout his postseason career (1.44 ERA in 4 GS). Tanaka will have to finish strong just like Sevy in order to secure that Wild Card start, but one bad start against an offense like the Red Sox isn’t going to kick him out of the running just yet.

The one thing Tanaka’s shaky outing might’ve done was put deadline acquisition J.A. Happ back atop the Wild Card picture in the eyes of the Yankees coaching staff. Happ has been outstanding since joining the Yanks going 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA in nine starts. He’s been even better in September going 1-0 in three starts with a 0.85 ERA. He picked up a no-decision in his most recent start but it may have been his most impressive because it was against the Red Sox (6 IP, O ER, 6 K’s).

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With Happ, you know that if he were to get that start the moment wouldn’t be too big for him and the chance of a blow-up might lesser than one with Sevy or Tanaka on the mound. Also if the game is being pitched in the Bronx having the lefty Happ on the mound could make it harder for the Oakland hitters to take advantage of the short porch in right field.

Right now Happ is scheduled to make his final start of the season in Boston next Friday which would line him up to start October 3rd on four days rest. Severino and Tanaka are scheduled to follow him on Saturday and Sunday, but the Yankees could always rearrange their rotation from now until then to give themselves the option of going with either three.

Again it’s probably all going to come down to these last 10 games and the last couple starts from all three candidates. If I had to guess right now the favorites in order would be Happ, Tanaka, and than Severino, but that could change in a second.

If Sevy continues to show that he’s back to the Cy Young favorite he was for much of the first half it’d be hard to pick against him. Especially because if the Yankees do get past the A’s than they could start the ALDS in Boston with Happ on the mound for Game 1 against a team he’s been great against ever since his days with the Blue Jays.

You obviously don’t want to overlook the A’s but should the Yanks win that game their best chance of beating the Red Sox might be with Happ in the opener followed by Tanaka, Sevy, and CC for games 2, 3 and 4. How each starter finishes their season will be the deciding factor on who gets the start but that’s definitely something to keep in mind when Aaron Boone and company are making their decision.