Yankees: Scouting their toughest early stretch of the season

The Yankees are in the midst of their toughest stretch of the season. Will they stay red-hot against the American League’s elite?

The next couple of weeks will be a huge test for this surging Yankees squad. After wrapping up their three-game series on Sunday with the Angels, the Yankees will head to Houston for a four-game set, followed by back-to-back home series against the Indians and the Red Sox.

Although this upcoming schedule presents some challenges, there may not be a worse time for opposing teams to test these 17-9 Bronx Bombers. Entering Saturday, the Yankees have won eight straight and have outscored their opponents 62 runs to 17, crushing their opponents into submission. This continued on Saturday night when the Yanks beat down the Angels and took a 10-0 lead in only the second inning.

Let’s break down their remaining matchups and see where they may be favored.

1. Yankees vs Angels

Game three: CC Sabathia vs Tyler Skaggs

The Yankees will enter tonight coming off their eighth straight win with the veteran CC Sabathia (1-0, 1.86 ERA) on the mound hoping to extend the streak to nine. CC’s craftiness and reliability on offspeed pitches should play well against a good fastball-hitting team like the Angels, and Mike Trout should be prepared to see a steady dose of sliders all day from Sabathia.

Skaggs (3-1, 2.96 ERA) has gotten off to a good start in 2018, but his numbers will likely regress some to more closely resemble his career splits. With another opposing lefty, advantage Yanks.

Game one: Sonny Gray vs Charlie Morton

This matchup seems a bit one-sided, given Gray’s (1-1, 7.71 ERA) struggles thus far and Morton’s (3-0, 1.86 ERA) continued transformation into a quality starter. The Yankees struggled to hit Morton in game seven of the ALCS when he held the Yankees to only two hits in five innings.

Although excelling so far in 2018, Morton is coming off his worst start of the season against the Angels on April 24, when he allowed four runs, five hits, and five walks en route to his first loss of the season. Perhaps he is falling back to Earth? Either way, the Astros seem to have a clear advantage in game one of this series.

Game two: Jordan Montgomery vs Justin Verlander

Although Montgomery (2-0, 3.76 ERA) is having a solid start to 2018, Verlander (4-0, 1.36 ERA) has been otherworldly. Verlander has always been a big-game pitcher, and he’s sure to be amped up to face the Yankees after all of his offseason tweets.

Don’t sleep on Montgomery though. With his bulldog mentality on the mound and variety of pitch offerings, he won’t back down and may be able to match Verlander if he can keep the Astros sluggers off-balance. The game could come down to the bullpen, but you have to give the Astros the advantage here again.

Game three: Luis Severino vs Dallas Keuchel

The Yankees have their first starting pitching advantage of the series in this matchup, with Severino (4-1, 2.61 ERA) facing off against Keuchel (1-4, 4.00 ERA), a previous Yankee killer. Sevy’s emergence into an ace and legitimate top starter in the MLB has been huge for the Yankees success, both now and into the future.

He’s facing off against a dangerous Astros offense that excels at hitting the fastball, so despite his elite velocity Severino will need to bring his buckling slider to throw off sluggers like reigning AL MVP Jose Altuve and shortstop Carlos Correa.

Keuchel, who dominated the Yankees in the 2015 AL Wild Card game and also in their first ALCS matchup last year, finally faltered in game five, when he let up seven hits and four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings. Does that mean the Yankees finally solved him? Hopefully, but his reliance on breaking pitches always makes him a tough pitcher for the hulking Yankee sluggers. Still, slight advantage Yankees.

Game four: Masahiro Tanaka vs Lance McCullers Jr.

The Yankees face another pitcher they have struggled against in McCullers (4-1, 3.71 ERA), who pitched to a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings in last year’s ALCS. McCullers unleashed his devastating curveball, that shows 12 to 6 movement at an average of 88 mph, an extremely high velocity for such a pitch.

McCullers would fit well with this Yankees staff, as he rarely throws his fastball and instead primarily relies on his curve and his sinker, which sits around 94 mph. He’s a tough matchup for the Yankees given his ability to pound Judge and Stanton low-and-away with his breaking pitches, something the two behemoths have struggled with in the past. Tanaka (4-2, 4.37 ERA) also pitched very well in the ALCS, holding the Astros to a 1.38 ERA in two starts. It’s a good matchup, but since the home team won every game in that series, I’ll give a slight edge to the Astros.

Game one: Sabathia vs Trevor Bauer

The Yankees get another tough matchup in Bauer (2-2, 2.41 ERA), who has carried over his second-half success in 2017 into this season, looking like he has taken the next step as a starter. He hammered Judge with devastating sliders low-and-away in the ALDS, striking him out in all five at-bats and holding the Yankees to just two hits and no runs in almost seven innings of work in his first start of the series. The Yankees got to him in the deciding game five though, and Judge has made a lot of adjustments against low-and-away breaking pitches this year.

CC pitched pretty well against the Indians in the ALDS, starting the decisive game five and finishing with 14 strikeouts in just 9 2/3 innings pitched throughout the series. He should be up for this matchup, and I give the Yankees a slight edge given their more powerful offense and the Indians recent sending of relief ace Andrew Miller to the DL.

Game two: Gray vs Mike Clevinger

Gray got touched up in his opening start against the Indians in the ALDS, only lasting 3 1/3 innings after letting up three runs and struggling to find the strike zone. His inability to throw strikes and get ahead of batters has followed him into 2018, and I don’t think the boo birds at Yankee Stadiums will do much to help him. Coupled with Clevinger’s (2-0, 2.56 ERA) strong start to the season, the advantage goes to the Indians.

Game three: Montgomery vs Josh Tomlin

The Yankees hold a clear advantage in this game, with Montgomery facing off against a struggling Tomlin (0-3, 9.24 ERA) who has already given up eight HRs thus far this season. Tomlin’s been struggling to locate his pitches, and coupled with his lack of elite velocity or movement, the Yankees could feast off him. There’s a clear advantage for the Yankees in this series finale.

Game one: Severino vs Chris Sale

A rematch from earlier this season, Severino again faces off against the dominating Sale (2-1, 2.31 ERA), who bested Sevy in their first matchup at Fenway. That was a very cold night, which made it difficult for Severino to spin his signature slider and also led to some command issues, resulting in some hangers over the plate that got hit hard.

That was Sale’s first win against the Yankees (1-3) since he joined the Red Sox, although he has pitched well with a 2.50 ERA in 40 innings with 58 strikeouts. Last year, the Yankees seemed to always get to him late in the game, so hopefully, they can continue so here.

A promising sign from their last game against Sale was seeing Judge go 3-for-3 off Sale with two hard singles and a home run, after initially struggling against the lanky lefty to start his career. He jumped on Sale early in the counts, and let’s hope the Yankees can learn from that. This game is a toss-up.

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Game two: Tanaka vs David Price

Another rematch from their last series, both pitchers will look to rebound against their rival after a poor showing from each respective starter. Tanaka let off six runs in five innings, at least providing the Yankees with some length unlike Price (2-3, 3.78 ERA) who only lasted one inning before he felt a “tingling sensation” in his pitching hand.

That sensation may have had something to do with the Yankees pounding him for four runs, led by Stanton’s triple to deep center and Sanchez’s two-run shot.

Sanchez has always enjoyed hitting off Price, he has five home runs off the former ace who has begun to regain his form but has struggled when facing the Yanks since he joined the Red Sox.

Tanaka has done a fine job bouncing back in his last two starts after a rocky start to the season, and he looks poised to build upon it. On paper, the Sox should have the advantage here, but my gut is saying the Yankees will get to Price again and Tanaka will throw a quality start.

Game three: Sabathia vs Rick Porcello

One of the leading early candidates for the AL Cy Young is Porcello (4-0, 1.93 ERA), who is looking like his 2016 self when he won the award. He stifled the dangerous Yankees offense in their first matchup, throwing seven innings of shutout, two-hit ball en route to a win in the series finale. CC will have to be at the top of his game in this matchup, but the advantage here should go to the Sox.