Yankees: Where should Greg Bird bat?

This year’s Yankees lineup is stacked with power, but most of it is right-handed. First baseman Greg Bird provides a lot of left-handed power. Where does he fit in?

We still don’t know what the Yankees Opening Day lineup will look like, but based on manager Aaron Boone’s lineup choices during Spring Training, it looks like he’s stacking the righty and lefty power. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez are in the second, third and fourth spots, respectively, and Didi Gregorius and Bird in the five and six slots.

Conventional wisdom says to put a left-handed hitter somewhere between all those righties. The thinking behind that is to make it more difficult for opposing managers to manage their bullpens late in games.

That being said, Boone is a numbers guy. It’s one of the reasons the Yanks hired him. He says the numbers will play a big role in his lineup construction:

“I’ll bring guys in from the front office and ask them to run different run-projection stuff on what it looks like with this guy; if we give this guy [a day] off, what’s the best combination? Those are conversations that I’m always having.”

So, what do the numbers say? We ran some lineup projections through the Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings, using this year’s PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus. This is assuming Neil Walker gets the bulk of the at-bats at second base. That’s something that isn’t a given now that Tyler Wade is on the 25-man roster.

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Let’s assume the lineup will look like many people expect:

1. Brett Gardner (L)
2. Judge (R)
3. Stanton (R)
4. Sanchez (R)
5. Gregorius (L)
6. Bird (L)
7. Brandon Drury (R)
8. Aaron Hicks (S)
9. Walker (S)

As constructed, that Yankees lineup is expected to score 5.076 runs per game. However, that’s not the highest-scoring combination.

In fact, the highest-scoring combination looks like this:

1. Judge (R)
2. Stanton (R)
3. Walker (S)
4. Sanchez (R)
5. Bird (L)
6. Gregorius (L)
7. Hicks (S)
8. Drury (R)
9. Gardner (L)

That lineup, with Judge leading off and Walker batting third, is projected to score 5.14 runs per game. Flip-flopping Bird and Sanchez generate the same result. This lends some credibility to the conventional wisdom by using the switch-hitting Walker to break up all that right-handed power. It also has Bird in the five hole, ahead of Gregorius.

Although many people balk at the notion of batting Judge in the leadoff spot, the numbers indicate that the Bombers would score more runs by giving their two best hitters, Judge and Stanton, the most at-bats.

Because it’s fun to dream and look at numbers, we also ran a lineup analysis with Wade at second base. To make things easier, we just swapped him with Walker and put him the ninth spot in the order.

That lineup looks like this:

1. Gardner (L)
2. Judge (R)
3. Stanton (R)
4. Sanchez (R)
5. Gregorius (L)
6. Bird (L)
7. Drury (R)
8. Hicks (S)
9. Wade (L)

In that configuration, the Yanks would score 5.013 runs per game. At this point, Walker is expected to put up better numbers than Wade. That probably accounts for the difference in production.

What’s most noteworthy about this version of the lineup is its most productive configuration:

1. Gardner (L)
2. Stanton (R)
3. Bird (L)
4. Judge (R)
5. Sanchez (R)
6. Gregorius (L)
7. Wade (L)
8. Drury (R)
9. Hicks (S)

This version would, theoretically, generate 5.059 runs per game. As a result of adding Wade to the lineup, the Yankees are most productive with Gardner at the top of the order and Stanton, not Judge, hitting second. Also noteworthy is Bird is batting third.

Next: Who will be this year's Aaron Judge?

In conclusion, the numbers point to a few key things. First, the Yankees could score more runs with Walker in the lineup instead of Wade. Second, breaking conventional wisdom by batting Judge in the leadoff spot also results in more runs. They also show that breaking up the righties with a lefty or switch-hitter would result in more run production. Finally, it looks like Bird, in many scenarios, should be that guy, hitting anywhere from third to fifth, but always ahead of Gregorius.

Of course, Boone will decide who bats where, and things will undoubtedly change as the season plays out. However, these numbers could give us a window into how the Yankees will make some lineup decisions in the early going.