Yankees hitters vs. Tampa Bay Rays starters

Chris Archer

For a guy who lost 19 games in a season, Chris Archer is still one of the premier starters in the majors. But he has flaws, some bigger than others and is still vulnerable, especially to next season’s Yankees’ team.

First off, Archer throws only three pitches, two of which make up over 90 percent of his pitches thrown. That alone could make facing him a tad easier.

But even with his lack of different pitch types, Archer is still not an easy opponent. With a slider capable of striking out 180 batters, and a fastball with more than average rising action, Archer makes getting hits a battle at the plate.

Pitch f/x tracked Archer’s fastball to rise, on average, ten inches. That’s movement similar to Aroldis Chapman, who as we all know, has one of the best fastballs in baseball. But between the two of them, Chapman’s fastball is usually five mph faster than Archer, meaning that Archer’s fastball spin rate should be similar to that of Chapman, but for a ball traveling at a slower speed.

Because of this extreme spin and movement, Archer’s fastball results in balls in play only 12 percent of the time.

So yes, a pitch that the Yankees usually hit well off; a pitch that the Bombers dynamic duo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton each hit at least 20 home runs off of last season, will not be so easy when facing Archer. But here’s where another problem arises.

Judge and Stanton both have hit zero home runs off Archer in their careers. This in large part is because both of the Yankee power hitting outfielders bat right-handed, which Archer pitches substantially better against.

But why does Archer pitch so much better against righties than lefties? Well, against right-handed batters, Archer’s slider will break away from the batter. This makes his slider’s late-breaking movement harder to observe from a batter’s perspective.

On top of that, Archer has a third pitch, a changeup, which is not only his worst pitch but is also almost exclusively thrown against left-handed batters. And it just so happens that the Yankees have a few of those.

The Yankees left-handed hitters, which include Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Greg Bird, all hit with some success against Archer. Ellsbury especially, who although not looked at with much value, hits over .500 against Archer in his career.

If the Yankees are going to perform with success against the Rays’ ace, their left-handed batters may have to carry the team, since all Yankee right-handed batters have six total hits against Archer, compared to the 44 coming from lefties. This left-handed success may allow Ellsbury to find a way into the starting lineup.