Yankees hitters vs. Tampa Bay Rays starters

Chris Archer

For a guy who lost 19 games in a season, Chris Archer is still one of the premier starters in the majors. But he has flaws, some bigger than others and is still vulnerable, especially to next season’s Yankees’ team.

First off, Archer throws only three pitches, two of which make up over 90 percent of his pitches thrown. That alone could make facing him a tad easier.

But even with his lack of different pitch types, Archer is still not an easy opponent. With a slider capable of striking out 180 batters, and a fastball with more than average rising action, Archer makes getting hits a battle at the plate.

Pitch f/x tracked Archer’s fastball to rise, on average, ten inches. That’s movement similar to Aroldis Chapman, who as we all know, has one of the best fastballs in baseball. But between the two of them, Chapman’s fastball is usually five mph faster than Archer, meaning that Archer’s fastball spin rate should be similar to that of Chapman, but for a ball traveling at a slower speed.

Because of this extreme spin and movement, Archer’s fastball results in balls in play only 12 percent of the time.

So yes, a pitch that the Yankees usually hit well off; a pitch that the Bombers dynamic duo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton each hit at least 20 home runs off of last season, will not be so easy when facing Archer. But here’s where another problem arises.

Judge and Stanton both have hit zero home runs off Archer in their careers. This in large part is because both of the Yankee power hitting outfielders bat right-handed, which Archer pitches substantially better against.

But why does Archer pitch so much better against righties than lefties? Well, against right-handed batters, Archer’s slider will break away from the batter. This makes his slider’s late-breaking movement harder to observe from a batter’s perspective.

On top of that, Archer has a third pitch, a changeup, which is not only his worst pitch but is also almost exclusively thrown against left-handed batters. And it just so happens that the Yankees have a few of those.

The Yankees left-handed hitters, which include Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Greg Bird, all hit with some success against Archer. Ellsbury especially, who although not looked at with much value, hits over .500 against Archer in his career.

If the Yankees are going to perform with success against the Rays’ ace, their left-handed batters may have to carry the team, since all Yankee right-handed batters have six total hits against Archer, compared to the 44 coming from lefties. This left-handed success may allow Ellsbury to find a way into the starting lineup.

Jake Odorizzi

He may not be on the Rays for too much longer, but for the time being Jake Odorizzi is the Rays’ No. 2 option and for a good reason.

Not only has Odorizzi had successful seasons in the past, in which he has won double-digit games, but he has also had ERAs lower than 4.00 and even struck out 174 batters in his rookie campaign.

Now a few years later, Odorizzi is still a viable middle rotation pitcher. With five sound pitches, all with batting averages against lower than .250, Odorizzi is almost impossible to predict as a batter.

As for his pitches, they’re all excellent. Odorizzi is not a power pitcher, having never thrown faster than 95.47 mph. Nevertheless, he finds a way to get the job done. Odorizzi’s earned run damage comes from home runs. In fact, of all his pitches, Odorizzi’s splitter has the highest ball in play percentage, standing just under 21 percent.

His fastball, which he throws almost every other pitch, has a ball in play percentage of 13. That means that only 6.5 percent of the pitches he throws don’t result in hits, but just a ball batted into play.

This is a part of Odorizzi’s one main flaw. He has five good pitches, some could be considered great. He has low batting averages against, decent strikeout totals, not a bad number of walks, but when he does give up hits, they are big hits.

Odorizzi gave up 30 home runs last season, eight shy of the league leader, Rick Porcello. Of these 30 home runs, 19 were hit by right-handed batters, which is unusual for a right-handed pitcher to perform worse against right-handed batters. This could be because of his pitch selection when facing certain handed batters.

Against right-handed batters, Odorizzi throws his cutter and slider much more than while facing left-handed batters. As a result, many may think that his troubles against righties are due to his decision making of which pitch to throw.

However, while on the surface it might seem this way, I do not believe this is the case.

Both of these pitches, his cutter, and slider, have very low batting averages against, low balls in play percentages, decent swing percentages. And yet, right-handed batters still find a way to hit off Odorizzi. Which gives us all reason to believe his struggles are not a product of his pitch choice.

Because of Odorizzi’s plethora of pitches, to go along with the actual ability of each pitch, the Yanks will have a hard time getting on base when facing the Rays’ starter. That being said, most of the Yankees’ offensive damage will come off the long ball. In past meetings between Odorizzi and current Yankee hitters, over 20 percent of all hits were big flies

If the Yankees hope to win against Odorizzi, they will have to do so with power. But I somehow do not see a lack of power is the problem for this Yankee lineup.

Blake Snell

Blake Snell’s performance this past season was less-superb than his rookie season in which he started 19 games, posted a 3.54 ERA and a very high K/9 of 9.91; which would rank 30^th among all MLB starters.

But last season, just about all of Snell’s stats worsened. His ERA rose above 4.00, but his pitch velocity also rose, and his pitch movements slightly differed from his rookie season.

So are these changes to blame for Snell’s lower level of performance? Or perhaps after being in the league for a season, teams have his game plan mapped out now.

Well, as it turns out, Snell did not change too much to his style of pitching. Besides the increase in speed to his pitches, and the slight discrepancies of pitch movement between the two years, Snell still pitched in similar patterns, throwing a remarkable number of changeups to right-handed batters, but almost zero changeups to left-handed batters.

His pitch patterns are a big part of why Snell struggles from time to time. All of his pitches are somewhat good individually, but because of the excess of changeups to righties, and the lack thereof to lefties.

Followed by the abundance of sliders thrown to lefties (to make up for an absence of changeups) and fewer sliders to righties than lefties, individual players and teams will “luck out” when facing Snell.

The Yankees have a handful of players who I predict will see success when facing Snell. Right-handed batters who hit well off changeups — Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Ronald Torreyes — along with left-handed batters who hit well off sliders — Didi Gregorius — should all power the Bombers to wins against Snell.

The downside here for those batters who do not hit well in these circumstances. Brett Gardner, Greg Bird and Jacoby Ellsbury are all lefties who hit terribly against sliders. Paired with Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier’s poor ability to hit changeups could cause the Yanks to leave a sizeable number of runners on base.

The upside of Snell, which could lead one to believe that he is ready to turn around his 2017 season, would be the drop of his WHIP from 2016 to 2017. Even though his ERA rose, he allowed fewer runners on, meaning his run damage was coming off of home runs.

This is more good news for the Yankees, who look to lead the league in home runs for the second season in a row. And what better pitcher for this to correspond to than Snell, who saw his innings between each home run allowed downgrade to under nine innings in 2017 from almost 18 the previous year.

Jacob Faria and Matt Andriese

The back-end of the Rays’ rotation is up for grabs as of right now. That being said, with two rotation spots left, the jobs seem to be in the hands of Jacob Faria and Matt Andriese.

Both of these two pitchers are relatively young, Andriese the elder at 28 years old; Faria 24. Both have also been given starter duties in the past for the Rays. For these fundamental reasons, the Rays look to return these two into the rotation.

Andriese and Faria are not power pitchers; relying on slower pitches which break more than the average pitch.

Faria finished his rookie season last year with a 3.43 ERA in 86.2 innings pitched. Not bad for a rookie on limited appearances.

Andriese was not so fortunate this past season, posting a 4.50 ERA, his third season with an ERA above 4.00.

But these two pitchers can hold the Yankees’ offense at ease. Both Tampa Bay starters wield four-pitch arsenals, three of which are common between Andriese and Faria; fastball, changeup and curveball.

Starting with Andriese’s differing pitch, his cutter has decent movement, while supporting a .269 batting average against. The good news for the Rays here is that extra base hits rarely come off his cutter. But, against the Yankees’ exceptional hitters his cutter should not be that large of a threat; especially for Stanton and Ellsbury who both hit at least .400 against cutters last season.

Faria’s differing pitch, his slider, should be more of a problem for the Yanks who, as described in past editorials, hit very poorly against the pitch. Especially in the case of Faria, who has great control of his slider; the pitch being called for a ball or strike each around a third of the time. To add to that, his slider sports a low average, only enhancing the Yankees predicted struggles.

As for the other three pitches, well, they’re all somewhat successful. Each looking to give the Yankees a hassle to get on base to some extent.

With that being said, the Bombers should see the most success against each of these pitchers’ fastballs, having more movement and less velocity than most fastballs. The Yankees should see some balls exit into the stands off these fastballs.

Overview

The New York Yankees are the team to beat in the American League, as stated by Chris Russo.

But that doesn’t mean the Rays won’t put up a fight.

Chris Archer is a top arm in the entire league. The Yankees will struggle against him for the rest of his career.

But even the best have their off days. And besides Archer, the Rays still have plenty of arms for the Yanks to face who will be more favorable.

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The Rays’ depth within their rotation, through the addition of Nate Eovaldi to the active roster and Austin Pruitt in the bullpen, should be somewhat concerning to the Yankees as they have support in case of emergencies. However, the Yankees should not be too worried.

With the shortcomings of each pitcher a part of the Rays’ rotation, the Yankees and fans alike have something to look forward to each game. Especially with the presumption that the Yanks will have the long ball on their side; they can look past any pitcher within the Rays’ rotation.

Even with the limitations on the Yankees’ most home run friendly batters, the other pieces will be just as valuable at times, particularly the left-handed batters on the team.

Next: Yankees trade for Jaime Garcia was a huge waste

These good hitting lefties will improve the Yanks’ odds of winning when facing much of the Rays’ rotation, including their top two arms in Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi.