Yankees Aaron Judge: Meeting challenges and expectations in 2018

By the third week of May, Yankees phenom Aaron Judge had already set the record for home run velocity with a blast of 119.4 miles per hour and had batted .303 with 10 home runs, 20 RBI, and a .411 OBP in 22 games in April to win the ROM honors.

On May 22, Yankee Stadium debuted the Judge’s Chambers in Section 104, a paneled area of 18 seats arranged in three rows, set below and adjacent to the right-field bleachers to cheer on the American League Rookie of the Month and Statcast phenomena, Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge.

By September 1, Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor donned a black robe and sat in the Judge’s Chambers to cheer him on. In between these two events is a season few players ever had or imagined having.

For each of the first three months of the season, Judge won Rookie of the Month (ROM) honors. When Judge won ROM for June, he led in all three Triple Crown categories: batting .324 with 10 home runs, 25 RBI and a .481 OBP.

Judge also had a 32-game on-base streak at the time, including reaching base in every game in the month of June.

Then came the scudding sound of the brakes as Judge slowed down after winning the Home Run Derby, though no connection between the two events has ever been proven.

After the All-Star break, Judge continued to break franchise records and hit mammoth home runs (such as the one he belted in Safeco Field on July 21 that Statcast was unable to measure).

But he hit just .228 and had such a bad stretch that he broke Adam Dunn’s strikeout record for a position player.

However, by October 1, all that was once again behind Judge, as he won Player of the Month for the fourth time in 2017, slashing .311/.463/.889 with 15 home runs and 32 RBI in September.

During the Postseason, Judge struggled with a .188 average, 27 strikeouts (a new Postseason record) but once again, he had a high OBP with .816. In September, Judge had received the most walks by a rookie, 107, since Ted Williams (1939).

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On the strength of such a fantastic rookie campaign, what challenges does 2018 pose to Aaron Judge? Fangraphs says that Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will be the core of the Yankees’ offense, and, yet, at the same time, projects Judge for reduced numbers in nearly every category.

Fangraphs projects Judge at .253/.364/.552 with 43 home runs, 112 RBI, an OPS+ of 168 and a zWAR of 4.7. These numbers are all down from ’17 in which he posted: .284/.422/.627 with 52 home runs, 114 RBI, an OPS+ of 171 and an 8.1 WAR.

In ’17, in wins for the team, Judge batted .307 in 87 games — and in losses, he batted .254 in 68 games. Judge’s offensive successes are team successes.

Of course, every fan would like to see Judge strikeout less in ’18, but there are a few other offensive numbers fans would like to see improve. For example, his hitting against left-handed pitching and his numbers on the road could use some work.

In 152 games last season, Judge hit .298 against right-handed pitching. In 68 games against left-handers, he hit .230. Likewise, his home/road splits show similar disparity.

Judge hit .312 at home in 77 games, while hitting .256 in 78 road games. Judge will be sure to make adjustments in the offseason to his offensive game, and as Yankees’ fans had seen when he struggled in July and August last season, he is effective at successfully attacking flaws in his game.

With the specter of The Judge’s Chambers over his shoulder and his rookie numbers looming large, Judge has a tremendous job ahead of him, competing with his own rookie campaign.

However, just as he kept a note on his phone with his 2016 batting average, .179, to remind him not to take anything for granted, no doubt Judge will meet each challenge, whether it be improving his pitfalls or being the face of the Yankee franchise, with grit, determination and success.

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The expectations of this Yankee superstar are sky high after such a superb rookie campaign, but look for him to exceed not only expectations but projections as well in 2018.

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By the third week of May, Yankees phenom Aaron Judge had already set the record for home run velocity with a blast of 119.4 miles per hour and had batted .303 with 10 home runs, 20 RBI, and a .411 OBP in 22 games in April to win the ROM honors.

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