The Yankees Luis Severino just became a real CY Young candidate

Yankees Luis Severino has pitched like an ace all season. And his performance Sunday night vaulted him to second in the CY Young voting.

Yankees players have taken the team on a wild rollercoaster ride this season. Stalwarts became questions marks, became stalwarts again. Mashiro Tanaka and Matt Holliday suffice as examples. Some players left their marks early—Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier—while others just left the game: Dustin Fowler and Greg Bird fly to mind.

But through it, all has been Luis Severino.

His season has been less a surprise than a confirmation. Sevvy showed what he could do in 2015 and came in to spring training ready to repeat that performance.

And from his first shaky start in spring, Luis gained command, control—and confidence—until finally winning the fourth starter’s role.

His first two starts of the season were a microcosm of the spring, played out in fast motion, as Sevvy once again went from unsure, too cocksure. Watching the tape, you can see Severino’s body fill with the air of confidence.

The Yankees watched him march through the season, never missing a start. And rarely missing a beat. Severino had a 7.20 ERA after his first start; by the time he walked off the mound after giving up one run in seven strong against Baltimore on June 12th, he had lowered his ERA to a season-best 2.75.

Adver City

Sevvy struggled after that, as pitchers do. He got hit hard in three of his next four outings, culminating with his worst start of the season, at that point. On July second, Luis gave up six runs in fewer than six innings to the Astros.

If that game was a measuring stick against the best team in the AL, Severino came up short.

And this was the make-or-break moment in his season and, perhaps, career. When Luis faced problems with the 2016 Yankees, he was unable to overcome them. Instead, he melted down. So, how would he react to this disturbing trend?

In bulldog fashion, Severino bit back. His next outing wasn’t great, but it was still better than a quality start (seven IP/three ER). From that game on, he has watched his ERA arc down like a sinker through the zone. He has had just one bad start since eight earned runs, 4.1 innings pitched.

But he shrugged that off and in his next start posted 6.1 innings of shutout ball. And now, after last night’s win against the division-leading Red Sox, Severino stands with an impressive line. And the best pitchers in baseball.

He’s started 27 games and has an ERA of 3.03 and WHIP of 1.075. And he has struck out far more than a batter per inning (201/169.1).

What the Hell is, “an Archer”?

The Yankees ace had all of his weapons on display Sunday night. Also on display was ESPN’s opinion that the AL CY Young award is down to two men, Corey Kluber and Chris Sale. By the end of the game, however, that opinion was changed. Now, it included Luis Severino.

These three are the only pitchers in the top four of almost every major AL pitching statistical category: ERA; WAR; WHIP; Strikeouts; Hits/Nine; SO/Nine; and, SO/Walks.

Every so often an Archer or Stroman or Carrasco will appear in the top four of one of these markers, but there is little doubt that Kluber, Sale, and Severino are all part of the cream that has risen to the top. Sorry, ESPN.

Poise Matters

But there is good news and bad news for Severino’s CY Young chances. First, the good news: If he is not in front of Sale now, he soon will be. Sale is in front of Sevvy in most of those categories, but he was just beaten head to head.

Voters don’t scour the MLB network watching starts. They read the stats and watch the nationally televised games. Winning in that meeting with the Sox, with both teams wanting the win, matters.

And it matters that the Yankees won three of Sevvy’s four starts against the Sox, their biggest rival for the division.

Two of those Yankees wins have come against Sale. In those victories, Sevvy pitched more innings (13/11.2) but surrendered fewer runs (1/3). That should put Luis in front of Chris right now.

The Red Sox are a better team than the Yankees; their division lead is all the proof they need. But Sale has not been able to beat Severino in two head-to-head match-ups.

And Sevvy’s getting better while Sale is getting worse. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe summed it up this way:

"Chris Sale has been consistent in his Septembers — as in, not very good."

"Sale pitched great Aug. 29 against Toronto — seven shutout innings, three hits, 11 strikeouts — but since Aug. 1 he hasn’t been consistent. He’s 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA over seven starts."

"Sale is now 9-15 in September with a 3.84 ERA — his worst month."

First in the Hearts of Yankees Fans

Right now, my money is on Sevvy as the second best pitcher in the AL. And that’s the bad news: Corey Kluber is the best pitcher in the American League. The only advantage Luis has is that Kluber has missed a month.

But his numbers are so far and away better than anyone else’ that he is a virtual lock. Now, anyone who has been frustrated when the Play of the Game is announced in the eighth inning knows that the awards should not be given until the last out has been recorded

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So, there are some scenarios in which Severino could still win the CY Young. Of course, one way is via an injury to Kluber, but no one wants that. I once won a racing award because no one else showed up; it didn’t make me a faster runner.

And competing is about facing the best. There’s no honor in beating a pulled hammy.

Kluber might face a rough patch. The season is long, and September counts. If Corey has two or three bad starts, and Severino plays his best, the pecking order might be reversed. That’s possible. Unlikely, but possible.

To win by being the best over the entire course of the season is what makes the winning worth it. So, there is still time for Luis to prove the better man.

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However, the more likely scenario is that Kluber wins the AL CY Young. But in this rebuilding season, Severino has shown he is the second best pitcher in the American League. And a cornerstone piece of a Yankees dynasty is firmly in place.

All of that will probably make Luis Severino second in the CY Young voting. And on the pitcher’s mound when the Yankees playoffs begin.

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