The Yankees ten best prospects still playing in the minors

The Yankees youth movement is on full display, for better or worse. The team has called up, and either lost or sent down, some of the best talent in the system. But a deep system means lots of talented players. Here are the ten best players who are still working down on the farm.

The Yankees have a ton of talent in the system. But prospect rankings are subjective and slow to change. Look at the rankings after the 2015 season. Gary Sanchez was not in the top 100, was the Yankees fifth best prospect, and only the eighth-ranked catching prospect in the game. Rob Refsnyder was considered more promising.

And Ben Gamel was only the Yankees 28th best prospect. He went on to shine at Triple-A, win 2016 International Player of the Year and get traded to Seattle, where he is playing his way into consideration for a second place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

So, instead of looking at other arbitrary rankings, I’ve created my own. I admit I have not seen any of these players in person, but I don’t believe Keith Law sees them all either. And of course, I have my own criteria for consideration.

A Lot of Talent Left Off

First, no one who is currently on the Yankees can be on this list. That keeps Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade, and Ben Heller from consideration. And no one currently on the DL can make the list. How can you be one of the best players if you’re not actually playing?

That means that Dustin Fowler, Gleyber Torres, Albert Abreu, Greg Bird, Chris Gittens, Ronald Herrera, and Justus Sheffield were ineligible; Tyler Austin is both on the Yankees and the DL.

And there was an age consideration. Ben Ruta is doing a great job at Charleston, but he is 23. Ditto for Zack Zehner, who is 24 at Trenton. These two are likely doing so well because they are bigger with more experience than the players around them.

Likewise, I considered number of at bats. Both Dermis Garcia at Pulaski and Wilkerman Garcia at Staten Island have been playing a lot better but neither has had even 100 AB’s.

Baseball is about Consistency

And there is one name absent from this list: Jorge Mateo. He has been playing every bit like the superstar he has the talent of, but it still amounts to a great two weeks. Is he going to revert to form the next time he feels slighted? I hope this is the player we are going to see (traded) from now on, but the sample size is too small.

That is a lot of talent. It is worth pausing to note just how many really good young players are in the Yankees system right now. There are so many, in fact, that before I share the ten best, here are players 20-11.

20. LF Jake Cave SW/B

Cave has been an up and down player over the years. Jake was at Triple-A two years ago and was claimed in the Rule Five Draft by the Cincinnati Reds. But they returned him, and he seemed to play worse. His promotion to Scranton comes only because of all the big league call-ups and injuries.

And he is killing it at Triple-A: .326/.376/.651 with seven homers in 86 AB’s. But his Trenton stats are not so great: .266/.317/.516 in 128 AB’s.

Cave is making the most of his second chance, but he is not a true prospect anymore.

19. RF Billy McKinney SW/B

McKinney is 22 and slashing .395/.439/.789 with four home runs in 38 at-bats; that’s the good news. The bad news is that he was just promoted from Trenton, where he hit .250/.339/.431 with six home runs in 232 AB’s.

Billy, like Cave, is a streaky hitter but has two things going for him: he is a first round pick, and he is on a hot streak at Triple-A. He is more likely to get called up than many players ranked higher on this list.

18. SP Caleb Smith SW/B

The 25-year old Smith does not have an excellent track record and has never been a ranked prospect. He also pitched to a 3.96 last year at Double-A. But he is in Scranton this year and doing great. In 15 starts, he has a 2.07 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00, allowing 63 hits in 87 innings. It is hard to imagine we even see Smith pitch but his performance puts him on this list.

17. SP Ian Clarkin Tampa

Clarkin has always been a highly regarded pitcher. And his numbers this year reflect that, as he has put up a 2.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has given up only 56 hits in his 65 innings pitched, while striking out 50. The problem is his health. Last year he pitched 98 innings, and that was the most in his professional career. He is on pace to record more this year; if he does, he will move up this list.

16. CF Carlos Vidal Charleston

Carlos has a great slash: .297/.352/.339. But the 21-year old has no power, as in zero home runs so far this year.

15. RF Isiah Gilliam Charleston

Gilliam is not hitting for a great average, slashing only .253/.334/.435. But the 20-year old is already flashing some power potential, hitting ten home runs last year and eight so far this year. That puts him in the top 25 in the South Atlantic League. It also promises more to come as he ages.

He and Vidal are mirror images, regarding power and BA. I ranked Gilliam’s power as more promising than Vidal’s BA. Still, neither projects as a major league player right now.

14. RP Jose Mesa Tampa

This might surprise some because Mesa is a pure relief pitcher. Most rankings value starters, assuming those that fail will be the best relievers. But Mesa has thrown 39 innings so far and posted a 2.09 ERA and WHIP of 0.91 with 50 strikeouts. And Mesa not only is shining this year but also has a great track record. He has an outside shot of being a September call-up. And we will see him next year.

13. SP Nestor Cortes SW/B

Nestor has mostly high numbers. The 22-year old has an ERA of 2.83 and WHIP of 1.07 for his 48 innings of work at Trenton. That goes along with his 44 strikeouts. Last year he finished the season with a 1.53 ERA, which is great. But he only pitched 106 innings in 2016 as the Yankees try to decide if he is a starter or reliever.

Now Cortes is at Triple-A, where he is being used as a relief pitcher, with mixed results. He has a 1.93 ERA but a WHIP of 1.50 with eleven hits in nine innings. It’s a small sample size, and he is likely to improve. If he does, he will wear pinstripes in September.

12. CF Tito Polo Trenton

Tito looks better every year. He was just promoted up from Tampa, where he hit .283/.341/.429 with four home runs in 233 AB’s. But he also had 62 strikeouts. The 22-year old Polo is making the most of his promotion by slashing an unsustainable .500/.545/.733. He has also already picked up a home run in his 30 at-bats. Tito came over last year in the Ivan Nova trade and looks like a real prospect. Expect to see his name in a trade package.

11. SP Domingo Acevedo Trenton

Domingo is hard to rank, and I could have put him almost anywhere on this list, even in the top ten. He has mostly pitched at Double-A this year, where his numbers make him the Yankees best prospect. In 45 innings, Acevedo amassed a 1.39 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 47 SO. And he throws 103 mph. That got him named to the Futures Game as only one of two Yankees in the entire organization.

But in that game, he gave up three runs in one inning. And in his Scranton tryout, he posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, with 12 hits in 12 innings. However, Domingo projects at least as a quality reliever, although I’m guessing dominant. And he could still be a front-line starter. That’s good enough for number eleven on this list.

Now on to the top ten.

10. CF Blake Rutherford Charleston

Blake was the Yankees top draft choice last year, picked at 18. But he was projected as a top five pick and probably only skipped college because the Yankees are his favorite team. Last year, as a 19-year old, Rutherford excelled at Pulaski, batting .382/.440/.618.

That meant a promotion and Blake has collected his 245 AB’s this year in Charleston. His slash is good but getting better at .278/.343/.384. I say getting better because his average has been creeping up; Rutherford has batted .325 in his last ten games. Blake has just one home run, but he is only 20 and projects to be an outstanding power hitter.

But Blake also brings a lot of athleticism to the game and a great head for it; he’s also a money player. He has already been a key contributor to a World Title and was named to the 2017 SAL All-Star team. Rutherford is currently the Yankees third-ranked prospect and 30th overall. Right now, though, he is only playing as the Yankees tenth best prospect. My guess is he moves up this list and soon.

9. SP Jorge Guzman Staten Island

It would take something special for me to choose someone who had barely played in 2017; Guzman is that special. And the things that make him special are his fastball and his fastball command.

His numbers in the short sample size are outstanding. He has thrown 22.2 innings and put up a 1.99 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Jorge has only allowed 13 hits while striking out 26. Those are all great, but it is still just four games at Staten Island. And Guzman is 21, so he has a serious advantage at the level.

But it is one other number that separates him: 105. That is the fastest pitch Guzman has thrown, and it is not an aberration. Danny Borrell, the Yankees minor league pitching coordinator, watched him pitch recently and noted that,

“He didn’t throw a fastball below 98 until the seventh inning,” Borrell reported, also raving about Guzman’s “slurve” that goes 86-88 and an improving changeup.

Guzman has the best fastball in the Yankees organization, at any level. And he seems to be able to control it. That makes for a future closer. The Yankees, however, still dream on Guzman as a starter.

The above article makes it seem as if he has one good secondary pitch, his slurve, but needs to add a third pitch. As he is in Staten Island, it seems as if he will have time to develop his entire repertoire.

Unless Guzman blows out his arm, he will get a chance one day to pitch for the Yankees. My guess is we see him late next year. It might be as a starter or reliever, and he might not be successful, but he will get his chance. 105 is 105, at any level.

8. 2B Nick Solak Tampa

Solak was drafted last year, along with Rutherford, and is proving to be everything he promised. Nick is 22 and slashed .380/.474/.576 in his last year in college (Louisville). He followed that up with a strong showing in the extremely competitive Cape Cod Summer League, hitting .329 with a .438 OBP; both were top five in the league.

His first year with the Yankees was no different. Nick was assigned to SI, where he got 240 AB’s and hit .321/.412/.421. That’s a great year, but he was 21, older for a position player at SI.

However, the Yankees saw enough of him to advance him all the way to High-A Tampa. Again, Solak has responded. He is currently slashing .306/.406/.459 over his 268 at-bats. Nick has always projected as a great line drive hitter, and he has not been slowed down yet.

The Runner Stumbles

But Nick has two stumbling blocks to deal with, and they dovetail together. One is that he does not project as a power hitter, and two he plays second base. That doubles the problem because teams expect second to be a major power position. And he is not a great defensive player.

One problem might fix itself. You can see his SLG has improved from last year, with roughly the same number of AB’s. He hit three home runs all of last year but has seven so far this year. Solak would not be the first player who developed his power late.

And the other problem is also easy to solve. Solak is neither good enough defensively to play a premier defensive position or strong enough to play a premier power position. But he does play several positions well. That sounds like a super-utility player to me. And a good one.

Solak right now looks like a better version of Tyler Wade. One of the intangibles that separate Wade is his character and baseball IQ. He needs those to go along with his good but not exceptional skills. Nick is described repeatedly as hard-nosed and gritty. That, along with his high average and contact rate, should put Solak on the Yankees radar, either as a player or trade bait.

7 SP Dietrich Enns SW/B

Rankings are hard and deciding where to put Enns was one of the most difficult choices. I recently wrote about Enns when he returned from the DL so that I won’t write as much here.

Instead, I will sum it up. Enns has been in the system since 2012. In no season has he posted an ERA even at 3.00, let alone above it. In 2016, he pitched 135 innings between Trenton and Scranton. He finished the year with a 1.73 ERA (1.17 WHIP), with a 1.52 ERA in his 65 Triple-A innings. Those are the numbers of an ace.

But Enns has issues, and the first is health. He has only pitched five games this year, out on the DL from early April to late June. The other problem, at least for some evaluators, is that he is not a high-mph pitcher. And while that doesn’t bother me, it might bother the Yankees.

However, Enns has the track record and is performing at a high level at Triple-A. The Yankees will take a look at him later this year. That makes him number seven on this list, right behind…

6 SP Zack Littell Trenton

If any prospect still playing shows how deep the Yankees system is, it’s Littell. Before I proceed, please remember how many players were not even eligible for this list. Now recognize that Littell is only number six.

Think about that while you read his numbers. The 21-year old, already at Double-A, has thrown 98 innings between Tampa and Trenton and posted a 1.74 ERA. That goes with his 1.06 WHIP, 83 hits, and 89 strikeouts. All of that is impressive enough.

Inside the Yankees Numbers

But even better is that his numbers improved when he was promoted. The Trenton part of that stat line reads 27 innings, 18 hits, 32 strikeouts, a 1.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. If you want to know more including how he came into the system, read this fine article by YanksGoYard’s Mike Callendrillo; he says it better than I can.

Littell has another strength found in the stat sheet: he is accustomed to getting to the seventh inning, something young pitchers sometimes struggle with. And he continues to improve. In his last outing on July 8, Zack pitched his best game of the season. He completed eight innings, gave up four hits and one walk, and zero runs. And he threw in 7 strikeouts as well.

Zack looks like he might be at Triple-A before the year is out, and possibly a September call-up. If not, expect to see him in the Arizona Fall League, and spring training next year. Right now, he looks like another Brian Cashman Steal-Deal.

5 SS Thairo Estrada Trenton

I doubt Yankees fans ever get to see Estrada play. He is the perfect trade candidate because he is an outstanding player with a big league bat but is not a top-ranked prospect.

First, he is just 21 and already at Double-A. He has had 323 AB’s this year, a huge sample size. And he is slashing .319/.374/.415. Plus, he’s only struck out 34 times. Teams are just now starting to reconsider how important the strikeout is. Estrada’s value will rise as teams return to disdaining the strikeout as a rally killer.

His major weakness right now is power, as he has hit only four home runs. But his primary strength is his defense. Thairo is a true shortstop, and MLB describes him thus:

His actions and instincts give him good range, and he has a plus arm that plays anywhere on the diamond. Estrada is also an asset at second or third base.

Thairo is young and improving, and he is already one of the best players in his league. He has the fourth highest batting average, and two of the players in front of him are in their late twenties. The only real prospect in front of Estrada is Francisco Mejia (Cleveland), the number 33 prospect in baseball. But Mejia has almost 100 fewer AB’s, meaning he has more time for a possible corrective cold streak.

Back to the Future

In fact, Thairo’s numbers compare very well with Mejia, with the exception of power. But regarding value, Estrada’s defensive abilities should offset his lack of power, especially as a shortstop. But whereas Mejia is the 33rd ranked prospect, Estrada is unranked.

And he is only listed as the Yankees 29th ranked player, behind players such as the unproven Wilkerman Garcia (16) and the, error-prone Hoy Jun Park (23). Of course, he is way behind Jorge Mateo (4); read this article and tell me who you would rather keep as a prospect. Thairo will end up the player Yankees fans read about in a trade. At least until he becomes an outstanding player for a rival team in a year or two.

4 SP Chance Adams SW/B

Chance is another player who has gotten plenty of notice this year. I will not bore you with needless repetition, other to give his most recent stat line: 57.2 innings pitched, 33 hits, 64 strikeouts, an ERA of 2.50 and WHIP of 0.95. And his track record is similarly exceptional.

That does not to say that Adams is not without question marks. One, he is another non-fireballer. Guys like he and Enns are always going to have to prove it more than players like Luis Severino. It seems as if teams want a constant voice in a pitcher’s head that repeats ad infinitum, “throw harder.” Adams doesn’t fit that mold.

But more than that is that Adams has a hard time getting of out of the fifth inning, accomplishing it just once in the last four starts. The last thing the Yankees need is another tax on the bullpen.

Adams is successful as a starter. But the Yankees need him to lengthen his outings at the Triple-A level before he is called-up. And they might try to trade him to a National League team before that happens. His stuff would play better in a more pitcher-friendly league.

But make no mistake about it, Chance Adams is a big league pitcher. He might be a starter or reliever, Yankees player or trade piece, but he is going to be in the show, and soon.

2. 3B Miguel Andujar SW/B

I have said this so much my wife is getting jealous: I love Miguel Andujar. For fun, let’s just follow him through his season. Here is an article I wrote before the season and here is one from Elite Sports, towards the end of May. And here is one from his historic debut with the Yankees.

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Andujar has spent his 2017 campaign proving his supporters, like Alex Rodriguez, right. His offensive game continues to improve, and he has not looked over matched, even in the Bronx. But he still needs to work on his footwork around the third base bag. His throwing arm, however, is a plus-weapon and a cannon at the hot corner.

Miguel will come up no later than September and will come into camp with a real shot to win the starting third baseman’s job. The Yankees might even trade Chase Headley. But he could come up before that.

You Can Almost See Him Now

August is coming, and that means the stakes are raised on the season. If Chase goes into a deep hitting slump, Cashman might be forced to chose hitting over defense. And with Headley up to eleven errors already, surpassing the ten he had all of 2016, the Yankees might have an easy decision.

From Double-A to momentous debut with the Yankees; that’s a good year for anyone and Andujar did it before the All-Star break. Now he looks like someone who will get at least two hundred at-bats next year to see if he is what many think: The Yankees third baseman of the future. Maybe Keith Law will even rank him higher than the seventh-best third base prospect.

1. CF Estevan Florial Charleston

You cannot rise to the top of these rankings and go unnoticed. Here is an article from the start of Florial’s career, two years ago. Jody Reed, the Yankees minor league field coordinator, had this to say:

At a young age he’s hitting for power, he’s got a strong arm, he runs well, he seems to hit for average of course in a limited sample size.  This kid has the chance to be a special player because he has the tools to do it. Estevan is very sharp.  He speaks three languages so he’s a very sharp young man, a student of the game.

And this one from earlier in the 2017 season should bring you up to speed.

Clearly, Florial arrived with a lot of talent but not a lot of experience. But he started to show what he could do right away. He slashed .313/.394/.527 over 224 AB’s with seven home runs. What makes the homers so unique is that Florial was only 17 at the time. He already projected to hit for average and power.

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Last year saw Estevan struggle as he played against better, and overwhelmingly older, competition. He finished with a .227/.312/.371 slash but still provided plenty of promise. He hit eight home runs—as an 18-year old—and was promoted to Charleston from Pulaski before the end of the year.

The Yankees thought so much of him that they even let him play two days for Tampa in the middle of the season. That was not so much a tryout as a fill-in assignment, but it is telling that the Yanks chose Florial over his teammates.

Florial is a Soon-to-be Yankees Player

This year Florial is already fulfilling so much of his promise. His slash is stellar, recently dipping to .295/.377/.493. That goes with his eleven home runs and fifteen stolen bases in his 288 at-bats. But you can’t understand those numbers without a little context.

His ERA is eleventh best in the SAL, as are his home runs; his OBP is sixth best. Estevan is also sixth in total bases and eighth in walks, eleventh in home runs and ninth in slugging. And at least one of those home runs was a grand slam.

Florial is having a great year, especially for a 19-year old.

It’s so good that he was named not only to the All-Star team, but also to the Futures game. He was one of only two Yankees selected, along with Domingo Acevedo, and showed off his OBP skills. Estevan was behind in the count but came back to work a walk, later scoring. And that was off of Oakland’s 2016 first round pick and strikeout specialist A.J. Puk, who is at Double-A, two levels above Florial’s.

Next: The Yankees Went Prospecting for Gold last Year and Found it in Jordan Montgomery

His one big problem is that he strikes out too much, currently has the third most in the league. But that is not a stumbling block for the major leagues, and Florial will be moving up soon.

Estevan Florial has big-time player written all over him. He has speed, power, and humility and earned his place as the Yankees 15th ranked prospect. And he’s the best Yankees prospect playing in the minors today.