Yankees trade of Carlos Beltran for Dillon Tate looks like a steal

Yankees SP Dillon Tate is not an All-Star. He will not play in the futures game. And he is not about to be called up anytime soon. But he just might be the best pitcher in the Yankees system.

The Yankees took some risks last year when they traded their established, and still trade-worthy, stars for a pile of prospects. Some of those deals already look good—Gleyber Torres is a real foundational player—while others are still to be decided; Clint Frazier has shown only serviceable skills, so far.

But Brian Cashman’s trade for SP Dillon Tate is already looking like a heist. Tate was drafted by the Texas Rangers fourth overall just two years ago. Here is a pre-draft scouting report and a couple of the highlights:

"His stock took another leap in 2015 as Santa Barbara’s ace, becoming the best college arm in the Draft class.Tate showed the best stuff in the U.S. collegiate national team’s stellar bullpen during the summer. He pairs a 92-98 mph fastball with a sharp 86-87 mph slider. He mixes in a fringy curveball and his changeup has the chance to be above-average as well. Tate missed more bats in 2015 than he had previously."

That’s high praise, but what one expects for a top-five pick. Going into the 2016 season, Tate was ranked the 69th best prospect in the game. So, how did Cash turn a three-month rental—Beltran—into not only Tate but two others pitchers as well (Erik Swanson and Nick Green)? There seem to be two issues, and one of them might still prove Dillon’s undoing.

The first reason that Texas lost some faith in Tate is that he lost his fastball. His velocity in 2016 dipped from his days at UC Santa Barbara from mid-90’s to upper 80’s. And his slider lost its downward tilt and became flat. He went from two plus pitches to average pitches, at best.

That seems like a good reason for concern.

Pitcher, Heal Thyself

That spooked the Rangers, and the scouts and Dillon has dropped out of the top 100 prospects. But the reason for the problem seems by all accounts to stem from a hamstring injury in April of 2016. As often happens, when Tate compensated for the injury, he hurt his mechanics.

However, as a promising young pitcher whom everyone says works hard, the Rangers should have been more reticent to trade him.

Which brings us to the other reason they weren’t. The link only brings you to the overall prospects page. I am here referencing information you can find by clicking on Tate. The writer makes it clear that Tate was not able to incorporate the changes Texas wanted him to. That could be good or bad.

On the one hand, Tate knows his mechanics best. He should be the one to decide if he can or should change. I have seen other clubs try to make players into what they wanted those players to be, instead of letting them play to their strengths.

One of the reasons that Paul O’Neill was traded by the Reds was that they wanted him to hit home runs. The Warrior is not a home run hitter. But he is a great hitter for average, with some power. The Yankees let him be what he was; his 1994 batting title and WS championship rings speak for themselves.

Tate’s Arm is Doing all the Talking

Tate could be in a similar situation. Every report on him mentions what a good person with a great work ethic he is. And his interview reveals a smart and thoughtful young man.

But there is the chance that the Rangers were working in his best interest and Tate was just stubborn. This odd scouting report at least lends some credence to the idea. Is Tate smart and in control of his career, or headstrong and unwilling to take instruction?

The results since he left Texas belie the assertion, especially since the Yankees have taken a different tack from the Rangers. When asked about working with Charleston Pitching Coach Justin Pope last year, Tate said,

"Working with Justin Pope was really enjoyable. He really wanted me to just go out there and be myself. We worked on a lot of basic things that I already do, and he just helped me do what I do naturally, but better. We slowly improved my delivery with repetition.More from Yanks Go YardAaron Judge Time interview scared Yankees as much as it scared youMLB Network’s proposed Yankees-White Sox trade seems insaneWhy weren’t Yankees in on Kodai Senga now that we know the price?There’s one way Yankees can make SF Giants’ offseason even worseYankees should swing trade for old enemy to fill 2023 left field vacancy"

That has paid off. Even by the Arizona Fall League last year, Tate was back to being impressive, as Therron Brockish wrote for Baseball America. Brockish rates two of his pitches as above average and his fastball as a plus. Therron goes on to say,

"Tate’s stuff was electric as he struck out four in two innings pitched.Tate came out firing bullets at 96-97 mph. He pitched with a quick tempo and mowed through his first two innings of work, striking out four hitters in six batters faced. He threw from a three-quarters arm slot. His fastball was pretty true but seemed to get on the hitters quickly. He blew two hitters away with fastballs. Not until his third inning did a ball get hit hard off of him."

Power and Control

Dillon’s stint in the AFL has proven to be no fluke. He had been out this season with a sore shoulder until he returned to the Tampa Yankees with an impressive debut. Tate has made three starts, throwing 18 innings but surrendering only 13 hits and three earned runs. He has also struck out 21 and walked 3, a seven to one ratio.

His command is sharp, for both his fastball and slider. His changeup is a work in progress but is already at league average. And Dillon has already done something that Chance Adams has a hard time doing: work into the seventh inning. It is this that has kept the Yankees from calling up Adams already.

And he seems to be improving. Tate went seven shutout innings while striking out eleven in his last start and now his WHIP sits at 0.87.

If these three starts were all the history we had for Dillon Tate, he would not warrant a write-up. But he was once called the best arm in the 2015 draft. Now it seems as if he is performing as such, which should not be a surprise. The real surprise is how much the Rangers undervalued him.

Next: The Yankees will Lose Aaron Judge Next Week

Carlos Beltran is a great player, and Texas was right to try to win it all last year. But that didn’t happen, and Beltran has moved to a different Texas town. Now the Yankees might have a future ace, or perhaps closer. At the very least he has recaptured his top prospect status and rekindled the Yankees hopes.

And the 2017 Yankees need all the rekindled hopes they can get right now.