Yankees will add two of these relief pitchers before the All-Star Game

Getting Better with Age

The Pirates are at the bad end of an arc, as are several teams in this analysis. They recently developed a good young team and won an average of 93 games from 2013-2015. But last year they managed just 78 wins; this year, they are in fourth place and on pace to win 75 games. Wherever they are in their arc, it’s not the right end.

The Pirates are ready to sell. Fortunately for the Yankees, Pittsburgh has two relievers having great years; the first is Juan Nicasio.

Nicasio is having his best year in his age 30 seasons, throwing to a 2.97 ERA along with 28 hits in his 33.1 innings. His WHIP is a bit high (1.26) but nothing egregious. This is the first year that Juan has settled into a bullpen role after working as a starter most of his career, doing both just last year.

One negative for most teams is that Nicasio does not seem to have closer stuff. He has already blown three saves with limited opportunities: Juan has been splitting the job with Felipe Rivero since Tony Watson was removed from the position. But the Yankees need a great seventh inning guy, so this plays in their favor.

Juan is also one of those free agents to be I mentioned, currently earning $3,650,000 for a team going nowhere fast. Salary is a key determinant in the market for relievers, more so than with starters. Note: I used Spotrac for all the contracts but am only providing this one link.

Nicasio’ssalary is higher than some other quality relievers meaning the market for him will not be as big. But it is also big enough to make the Pirates motivated sellers. And because the player is a three-month rental, Pittsburgh cannot expect too valuable a player in return.

All of that favors the Yankees.

Talk about a Big Market

Still, Nicasio is a strong possibility, as his teammate Felipe Rivero. But he is going to be harder to get. Rivero came over from the Nationals (with Taylor Hearn) just last year in exchange for Mark Melancon and boy has that worked out. Felipe has earned All-Star level praise, as noted in the Pittsburgh Gazzette:

"“He’s been untouchable,” outfielder Gregory Polanco said, insisting Rivero deserves a spot on the National League roster. In his second year with the Pirates, Rivero has recorded a 0.88 ERA in 39 appearances. He owns the third-lowest ERA among qualified Major League relievers, trailing only the Philadelphia Phillies’ Pat Neshek (0.59) and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen (0.83)."

And unlike Nicasio, Rivero does seem like a promising closer. But his contract status is a problem for a different reason: It’s too team friendly. He’s only earning $564, 500 this year and is under team control through the 2021 season. Trading him seems unlikely, but there is one promising consideration.

Pittsburgh just started its decline. If they were on the upswing, things might be different. But all three of their top prospects/young players not named Josh Bell—SP Tyler Glasnow, OF Austin Meadows, SP Mitch Keller—are struggling. Glasnow currently has a 7.45 ERA in his twelve starts for the Pirates. They entered the season with the number seven ranked farm system; that number has to have taken a hit.

The future is getting further away for the next Pirates run.

Prospects can be Very Convincing

That might convince them that they are better off turning Rivero into three or four good prospects who will be ready, perhaps even experienced at the big league level, by 2019. Bell should just be entering his prime by then.

The Yankees have that if they think the 2017 season can be a special one. Getting Felipe could set up their bullpen for their next run, but it will take a gaggle of promising prospects. But someone is going to trade for Rivero either now or in the off-season.

But if it is not the Yankees, it certainly is not going to be the San Francisco Giants. They are thinking of selling, and their farm system isn’t as good as Pittsburgh’s.