Yankees will add two of these relief pitchers before the All-Star Game

Getting Better with Age

The Pirates are at the bad end of an arc, as are several teams in this analysis. They recently developed a good young team and won an average of 93 games from 2013-2015. But last year they managed just 78 wins; this year, they are in fourth place and on pace to win 75 games. Wherever they are in their arc, it’s not the right end.

The Pirates are ready to sell. Fortunately for the Yankees, Pittsburgh has two relievers having great years; the first is Juan Nicasio.

Nicasio is having his best year in his age 30 seasons, throwing to a 2.97 ERA along with 28 hits in his 33.1 innings. His WHIP is a bit high (1.26) but nothing egregious. This is the first year that Juan has settled into a bullpen role after working as a starter most of his career, doing both just last year.

One negative for most teams is that Nicasio does not seem to have closer stuff. He has already blown three saves with limited opportunities: Juan has been splitting the job with Felipe Rivero since Tony Watson was removed from the position. But the Yankees need a great seventh inning guy, so this plays in their favor.

Juan is also one of those free agents to be I mentioned, currently earning $3,650,000 for a team going nowhere fast. Salary is a key determinant in the market for relievers, more so than with starters. Note: I used Spotrac for all the contracts but am only providing this one link.

Nicasio’ssalary is higher than some other quality relievers meaning the market for him will not be as big. But it is also big enough to make the Pirates motivated sellers. And because the player is a three-month rental, Pittsburgh cannot expect too valuable a player in return.

All of that favors the Yankees.

Talk about a Big Market

Still, Nicasio is a strong possibility, as his teammate Felipe Rivero. But he is going to be harder to get. Rivero came over from the Nationals (with Taylor Hearn) just last year in exchange for Mark Melancon and boy has that worked out. Felipe has earned All-Star level praise, as noted in the Pittsburgh Gazzette:

“He’s been untouchable,” outfielder Gregory Polanco said, insisting Rivero deserves a spot on the National League roster. In his second year with the Pirates, Rivero has recorded a 0.88 ERA in 39 appearances. He owns the third-lowest ERA among qualified Major League relievers, trailing only the Philadelphia Phillies’ Pat Neshek (0.59) and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen (0.83).

And unlike Nicasio, Rivero does seem like a promising closer. But his contract status is a problem for a different reason: It’s too team friendly. He’s only earning $564, 500 this year and is under team control through the 2021 season. Trading him seems unlikely, but there is one promising consideration.

Pittsburgh just started its decline. If they were on the upswing, things might be different. But all three of their top prospects/young players not named Josh Bell—SP Tyler Glasnow, OF Austin Meadows, SP Mitch Keller—are struggling. Glasnow currently has a 7.45 ERA in his twelve starts for the Pirates. They entered the season with the number seven ranked farm system; that number has to have taken a hit.

The future is getting further away for the next Pirates run.

Prospects can be Very Convincing

That might convince them that they are better off turning Rivero into three or four good prospects who will be ready, perhaps even experienced at the big league level, by 2019. Bell should just be entering his prime by then.

The Yankees have that if they think the 2017 season can be a special one. Getting Felipe could set up their bullpen for their next run, but it will take a gaggle of promising prospects. But someone is going to trade for Rivero either now or in the off-season.

But if it is not the Yankees, it certainly is not going to be the San Francisco Giants. They are thinking of selling, and their farm system isn’t as good as Pittsburgh’s.

Three in Five Years

The Giants have had a dynastic run. But here in 2017, their record is 30-51; that’s even worse than the Mets. And their anemic farm system (preseason rank 24th) has to be in even worse shape as their top prospect—Tyler Beede—is currently carrying a 5.11 ERA at Triple-A. At least Glasnow is failing at the big league level.

That brings us to George Kontos. Yankees fans might remember him from 2011. He has a 2.83 ERA, with 42 strikeouts in 38 innings. George has given up 34 hits and has a WHIP of 1.23. That is the picture of a seventh or eighth inning guy.

And his contract is affordable, so much so it’s a bit of a double edged sword. Kontos is making $1,750,000 and has two more arbitration years after this one.

All of that makes him desirable to the Yankees…and everyone else. There in lies the rub. The Giants do not have to be in any hurry to trade him because his salary is affordable. And there will be a lot of other teams making offers; that drives up the prospective price.

The key is how much is offered. Frisco can use future players more than current ones but do not have to make any trades right now. Kontos might prove too costly regarding prospects, especially if the Yankees want to add two relievers from the market. And that’s our cue to move to Cincinnati, where the possibilities get a lot more possible.

Death, Taxes, and the Trading of Drew Storen

Drew Storen will be traded. He’s making $3,000,000 and will be a FA at the end of the year. His ERA is 2.78, and he has only given up 28 hits and 13 walks in his 32 innings: That adds up to a WHIP of 1.27. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds are 33-44 and last in the NL Central.

Here is another salary dump but with better upside and more experience than Nicasio. The Reds have no reason to keep him and every reason to move him well before the trade deadline. My guess is the two teams have already spoken about a trade for Drew.

That is less likely to be true for Raisel Iglasias, but I hope it is. I’m just not sure what it would take to get him. If you have not heard of Raisel, it’s not for lack of success. He signed a seven-year deal with the Reds back in 2014, essentially buying out his arbitration years early. The total value is $27,000,000 and runs through 2020.

And like many great relievers, Iglasias is a converted starter. That seems like a good decision as he currently has a 1.64 ERA to go with his 14 saves. He would be a steep price in prospects. I can’t help but wonder how the Reds view Mateo.

On Ice is Automatically Worse

There are plenty of reasons for the Reds to keep Raisel, but one big one that leaves them open to trading him: their pitching stinks on ice. For all their pitchers who have started at least one game in 2017, there are more with ERA’s in the sevens (4)–which includes two of their four pitchers with the most starts–than having ERA’s in the threes (1).

And I can’t even bring myself to write one-time promising prospect Homer Bailey’s 2017 line. It feels like calling someone the androgynous B-word. You’ll just have to follow the link. I’ll give you a second.

Unbelievable, right? Making matters worse is that there is no pitching in the pipeline, making their 13th ranked farm not so promising. They need to turn this one great pitcher into three good pitchers, and one of them a starter.

The Yankees could do that, and it might even make financial sense. If the Reds want to move him now, and if the Yankees want to give up the prospects, and if the bullpen completely collapses. A lot of if’s but Raisel is worth hoping on. Brad Brach from Baltimore, however, seems more than just a hope with every passing day.

One Bird Who Needs to Fly the Coup

The Orioles are in an interesting situation and are the one team I am not sure will be sellers. But their arc, like those of the Giants and Pirates, is quickly ending it’s semi-circular journey. The Birds have had a pretty good run over the last few years, even spending a few weeks in first place this year before fading.

And fading and fading and faaaaaading.

They are currently 38-39, fourth in the division and tied for tenth in the AL. Their record might make them want to stay, in, while their standing might make them want to sell. Based on how many big time players they have parted with in the last few years—Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, etc.—my guess is they are already willing to listen.

And the Yankees need to be talking about Brad Brach. Brach has seemingly stepped into the closer’s role and found the part fits him nicely. His ERA is good: 2.62; his WHIP is great: 0.874. Brad has picked up 14 saves while giving up only 20 hits in 34 innings. He’s struck out 33, as well. If the Orioles trade him, they are giving up on the season.

A Price too High for Baltimore

But they might want to do that. First is that Brach is making $3,050,000 this year, which is a lot for a team that watches every penny, and he’s a free agent after 2018. The Orioles front office is probably recognizing this is the end of their recent run and might be ready for a fire sale.

That’s even more likely because the Orioles farm system is a barren wasteland. It is ranked 27th, and their only prospect in the Top 100 is Chance Sisco…and he’s ranked 87th. They seemed poised to walk through the valley of AL East death, and soon. The O’s need to restock the system and Brach is one of their best chips.

Also, unlike some of the other players mentioned, Brad is only signed for one more year. His trade value will never be higher. The question is how the Orioles see this season.

In towns such as Philadelphia, they have no such confusion.

Isn’t Everyone Desperate to get out of Philadelphia?

The Phillies are, well, let’s just call it rebuilding and leave it at that. They are 26-51, which brings us to Pat Neshek. He is in the final year of a contract (originally signed with the Houston Astros) that pays him 6.5 million this year. That’s why the Phillies are desperate to get rid of him.

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Neshek, for his part, has only pitched to a 0.59 ERA in his 31 innings. That seems good. He has only given up 20 hits while collecting 29 strikeouts and has a 0.783 WHIP for the year. That’s why many teams will be desperate to acquire him. His one major drawback is that he is a strict one-inning arm, but that is better than the no-inning arms currently in the Yankees bullpen.

There is even a rumor the Phillies already have a standing offer for Pat. He knows he’s going to be traded and the Phillies know they are going to trade him; now, we just need to get the Yankees to be the one to trade for him.

The Once and Future Yankee

I am sure that the Detroit Tigers can also understand the meaning of their 35-43 record, fourth in the AL Central. And that means that Justin Wilson is likely on the block. Justin is another former Yankee who looks ready to wear the pinstripes again. He is having one of his best years, putting up a 2.76 ERA, 1.023 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts in just 29 innings.

Making it more likely the Tigers will want to trade Wilson is his contract. He makes $2,700,000 this year but has only one more year before free agency. That’s a lot of money for a team going in the tank, especially for one that has never liked paying relievers a lot of money.

And, just as mentioned about some others, Wilson will never have a higher trade value. The Tigers 25th ranked farm system should also provide more impetus.

Justin Wilson might be moving back to the Bronx.

Seeing is Believing

Perhaps the Oakland Athletics will see their way to making a trade with the Yankees. They are 35-44, dead last in the AL West. And if I know Billy Bean, he just loves to trade for prospects. The only question is what he wants for Ryan Madson.

Madson is pitching well but is making a lot of money. His ERA is 2.35, his WHIP is 0.946, and he has struck out 31 batters in 30 innings.

Ryan is also making $7,666,666 this year and next. But that works for the Yankees. They want to keep their prospects, and the Athletics will want to shed salary.

And there will be far fewer suitors for Mr. Madson. Usually that would put him on a plane to New York. But his price tag might be too high for the cost-conscious Steinbrenners.

I would think the Yankees will split their resources, getting one or two players by taking on salary and another that will cost quality prospects. Drew Storen and Juan Nicasio look good for the first scenario. My guess at the reliever the Yankees will find worthy of trading serious picks for is Raisel Iglasias.

Next: The Yankees Draft Philosophy: Pitching is Destiny

Whoever the Yankees like best, however, will be evident and soon. Tomorrow is the first of July, and the Yankees will need to get serious about improving this team. So there will be trades, and there will be some new blood. And Yankees fans will be able to go back to feeling confident when a player comes out of the bullpen.

Which would be a nice change from how they feel when that bullpen door opens nowadays. And yes, expletives were deleted in the editing of that last sentence.