Yankees Face Heart Pounding Decision on Luis Severino

Yankees spring training has been filled with hope and potential. But now that the season rapidly approaches, it is time to turn to reality and results. The problem for Joe Girardi and the inconsistent Luis Severino is that reality has raised as many questions as it has answered.

Yankees started Spring Training camp needing to find at least two starting pitchers. The Yankees hoped that the pitcher with the highest upside—Luis Severino—would make a statement with his pitching and demand a spot in the rotation. That has not happened.

Severino has made a statement and a clear one. And that message is that he is still a young and inconsistent pitcher. It might not be what Joe and the Yankees want to hear, but it cannot be entirely unexpected. Especially not for Joe Girardi, the man with a binder for every situation.

The numbers are not great. In ten and two-thirds innings, Sevvy has thrown to a 5.06 ERA and WHIP of 1.59. That’s not okay in any league.

But it is a small sample size, and his domination in 2015 cannot be forgotten. He pitched 62 innings and put up a 2.89 ERA with a WHIP of 1.2. He gave up fewer hits than innings pitched while he struck out 56. And that was during a playoff push.

Of course, he came back the next year and positively stunk: he put up an 8.50 ERA over 11 games as a starter. And his record was 0-8.

Consistently Inconsistent

Those back-to-back performances showed an inconsistency that a closer look at Sevvy’s spring training numbers reinforces. In his previous start, Severino looked every bit a future Yankees ace. He pitched three innings and gave up a wind-aided home run; it was the only run he gave up. And he also struck out four en route to leaving the game with a 3.68 ERA.

It looked to most observers that he had already done enough to get a chance on opening day. Here is a snippet from Eric Boland of Newsday and comments that reflect what all Yankees fans and observers saw and thought.

"The righthander’s third inning showed why they’re so committed to the concept of him being a starter, despite some success in the bullpen."

But Severino followed that up with a less-than-stellar performance on March 19^th. In three and one-third innings, he gave up six hits, two walks, and three runs. He walked off the mound with a bloated 5.06 ERA.

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Meanwhile, Chad Green might be having the best spring of any pitching prospect. Green went out the day after Severino’s disappointing outing and threw the same number of innings. Except he gave up only two hits, one walk, and zero runs. Chad walked off the mound with a 1.50 ERA.

And just as history should count when considering Severino, it must also count for Green. He threw 45 innings for the Yankees last year and finished with a 4.73 ERA, a WHIP of 1.4 and more hits than innings pitched. That is a rough debut, but there were encouraging signs, like striking out 52 batters in those 45 innings and looking calm, if not in control, on the mound.

What About Yoga?

The difference for the two right now is that Chad looks ready for another shot with the Yankees while Luis looks ready for some more incubation time. But it’s not that simple.

Severino’s biggest problem is his pulse: it’s beating too fast of a tempo. One look at him on the mound tells you he is a fiery competitor, feeding off of the emotion. He seems a man used to being naturally calm and confident.

In that state, an adrenaline rush fills you up and trebles your power, but you handle it with ease and control. Your motion is fluid while the ball explodes from your hand.

But not if you are nervous, as Severino probably is and has every right to feel. In that state of emotion, with your nerves already providing both adrenaline and uneasiness, the influx of gameday energy overwhelms you. Your body feels uncomfortable, and your throwing motion gets quickly out of whack.

You think about what to do instead of just repeating your delivery. Now you’re on the mound searching for success, while that knot in your stomach grows along with the voice in your head that says your blowing it. And with each hit and runner that scores, that voice becomes a yell.

Yankees, Heal Thyself

That is, to some extent, what Severino is going through right now. And while that sounds like a lot of pseudo-intellectual, armchair psychology claptrap [Editor’s Note: it absolutely is!] I have at least taken it from an informed source: Luis Severino.

"“I have to practice more in the bullpen,’’ he said of repeating his delivery and not rushing. “Sometimes the pressure of the game, you start thinking about that. I have to keep working.’’"

And Joe Girardi agrees as he says in the same article:

"“You have to be able to slow things down and relax,’’ said Girardi, who in his playing career was always there as a catcher to try to guide the way. “The pressure of pitching in New York, the pressure of pitching in Tampa, Toronto, Baltimore and Boston, there’s pressure pitching there, too, so you have to learn to control your mind and slow things down and make your pitch.’’"

This makes for an interesting problem. If it was a mechanical issue, or that Severino was getting killed on a pitch that still needs work, Girardi, and the Yankees would have an easier decision, based on metrics. Girardi has a binder for that.

That is not the case. What Luis needs is to work on being calm under big league pressure. You cannot do that at Triple-A.

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Playoffs or Bust

So now the Yankees have to decide what to do. Severino is already able to control his emotions at Scranton. But how many starts can the 2017 Yankees afford to throw away if Sevvy turns out to not be able to succeed as a starter?

The Yankees chances to make a run in the playoffs seem slim; letting Severino blow up in eight to ten starts in April and May might be the difference between playing in October and watching on TV. We already saw that story play out in 2016.

Chad Green might be a safer bet in 2017.

On the other hand, Severino might be able to figure it out and return to dominance. 2015 says he is capable of that. And his upside is that of an ace; Green is never going to be more than a back-end starter.

The postseason fate of the Yankees might hinge on this decision. Green might be a safer bet to get them to the playoffs, but a fully actualized Severino might lead them deeper into those playoffs.

Ironically, the very thing that has hampered Severino might ensure his spot on the opening day roster: his inconsistency. Just the fact that he has had some splendid outings should be enough to show he is on the right path. And that should earn him the pinstripes.

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Young pitchers are inconsistent. In fact, I would say that most pitchers are inconsistent to some degree. Even those who have good years can go out and dominate in three or four outings and get killed in one. That ratio over a full season, four wins to every loss, makes a front end starter.

Severino looks like a typical young pitcher who is still on a promising path to success. He might not get there but the time has come to find out if he will or not. And that is not going to happen at Scranton.

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The Yankees need to hope that Luis starts by going .500 for the first two months and then actually locks in his emotions. If he can find inner peace by the All-Star break, he could be a force down the stretch.

His 97-mph fastball and intimidating stare could lead the Yankees into the playoffs, and possibly into glory. That would be a dominant pitching force, indeed. And obviously—wait for it—the Yankees want that Force to be With Them [Editor’s Note: Ugh!].

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