Yankees Offseason Trade Target: Padres Starter Tyson Ross

While San Diego Padres starting pitcher Tyson Ross is far from a sure thing heading into 2017, he could offer an interesting buy-low opportunity for the New York Yankees this winter.

New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has shown a willingness to get creative with his trade targets in recent years, scouring the market for opportunities to acquire premium talent at a discount. After he made just one start in 2016 and underwent thoracic outlet surgery in October, acquiring Tyson Ross would be as risky as it gets, but it could pay off in a big way for the pitching-starved Yankees.

The 29-year-old right-hander dealt with persistent shoulder problems in 2016, but the surgery to correct the issue was reportedly a success, which means that Ross should be ready to go when the 2017 season rolls around. Thoracic outlet surgery requires four to six months of rehab, which would put Ross back on the mound by mid-April at the latest, assuming he suffers no setbacks.

The upside of acquiring Ross is tremendous if he can return to form. He established himself as one of the National League’s most dominant young starters from 2014-2015, pitching to a 3.03 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 391.2 IP over that span while striking out 24.9% of opposing batters and walking 9.6%.

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Probably Ross’ most outstanding skill is his ability to keep his ball on the ground. During his peak seasons from 2014-2015, an excellent 59.2% of the balls in play he allowed were hit on the ground (league average is usually around 45%). That makes him an excellent fit for the tight confines of Yankee Stadium, where flyball pitchers are often destroyed.

The common wisdom is that the Padres will allow Ross to get back to full strength in the first half and then flip him at the 2017 deadline as he’s a free agent after next season. San Diego has already gotten burned once by waiting to deal Ross, however, as he was expected to be one of their biggest trade chips at last year’s deadline.

If the Yankees are willing to gamble by putting in a strong offer for him this winter, the Padres may have to consider it rather than waiting and getting nothing for their former ace if he gets hurt again next year.

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So what kind of package would be fair? Because he’s a pure rental, they probably wouldn’t need to surrender anyone from their top ten. Maybe a package of three mid-level guys? Let’s say Chad Green, Billy McKinney, and Kyle Holder. Sound fair?