Yankees Could Look to Arizona in Search for Starting Pitching Help

Despite their 2016 struggles, the Arizona Diamondbacks starting rotation features several enticing trade targets for the New York Yankees.

A fire sale could be on the horizon for the Arizona Diamondbacks, with the news that the club would be firing their manager, general manager, and VP, as well as taking president of baseball operations duties away from Tony LaRussa. If the new front office decides to rebuild, the New York Yankees could kick the tires on some of Arizona’s talented starting pitchers.

It is no secret that the Yankees are expected to shop for controllable young starters this winter. The future of their rotation was uncertain even before losing Nathan Eovaldi to TJ surgery next year. Their farm system is extremely deep in quality position players, so it seems likely they will use that depth to shore up their questionable pitching staff at some point soon.

The Snakes rotation was a disappointment in 2016 despite the presence of some big names. The unit combined to earn just eight wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, which ranked 21st in MLB, while pitching to a 5.19 ERA which was the second-worst in all of baseball.

All of the Diamondbacks expected four best starters wildly under-performed expectations in 2016, but their track records and pedigree could make them interested buy-low candidates for the Yankees. Here’s a look at how interested New York might be in acquiring each one:

Shelby Miller

As with Greinke, the new Arizona front office may be more willing to trade Shelby Miller this offseason because they were not the ones who paid such a steep price to bring him in.

Miller was a complete disaster in 2016, with a 6.15 ERA and 4.87 FIP in 101 IP. His run prevention improved during his final six starts after returning from a stint in the minors (3.92 ERA in 31.2 IP), but the underlying peripherals are still worrying.

At age 25, there is plenty of reason to think a more competent club could turn Miller around. He accumulated 8.6 wins above replacement in his previous three seasons for Atlanta and St. Louis.

His mechanics are clearly are clearly a complete mess at this point. The fact that he injured his hand by scraping his knuckles on the ground back in April are a pretty good indication of that. The Yankees have a solid track record of fixing pitchers that Arizona messed up in recent years. Both Brandon McCarthy and Tyler Clippard flourished after leaving the desert for the Bronx.

The problem is it’s not really clear how to value Miller. Obviously he’s not worth what he was last winter, but the Diamondbacks also can’t just give him away. New York would need to be pretty confident in their ability to get him right to surrender top prospects for him.

The upside to acquiring Miller at a discount is tremendous. If it works out, the Yankees would be acquiring two seasons of a legitimate number two starter. I would guess at least one top 100 type guy would be necessary to land him, meaning Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Jorge Mateo, Aaron Judge, Blake Rutherford, or Justus Sheffield.

I wouldn’t be thrilled about giving up any of those guys for Miller, although I can appreciate why someone might want to make that move.

Robbie Ray

While Ray’s ERA jumped up almost a run and a half from 2015 to 4.90, his solid peripherals indicate he was the victim of some bad luck along the way. He saw a huge jump in strikeouts from the previous year, from 8.4 to 11.3 K/9. He did see a slight corresponding increase in walks and homers.

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Ray’s name may sound familiar to Yankees fans because he was part of the Didi Gregorius–Shane Greene three-way swap with Detroit and Arizona. The 25-year-old lefty has five quality pitches. He mixes a mid-90’s four-seamer, a sinker, slider, change, and curve.

Control is definitely an issue for Ray, walking 9.2% of the batters he faced this year, however one plus is that he’s already shown he can succeed in one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball. Yankee Stadium was the only stadium that rated more highly than Arizona’s Chase Field by ESPN’s 2016 MLB Park Factors.

Ray seems like one of the better fits for the Yankees of this group. He comes with four years of team control and isn’t even arbitration eligible until after next season. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as Greinke or Miller, but would slot in as a solid number three or four.

Patrick Corbin

The main selling point on Patrick Corbin was his excellent 2013 season, where he looked like an emerging front-of-the-rotation option. In 208.1 innings of work and 32 starts that year, he pitched to a 3.41 ERA and 3.43 FIP while making his first All-Star squad.

After missing the entire 2014 season and part of 2015 following TJ surgery, Corbin made 16 solid starts last year, but hasn’t carried over that success to this season. He finished 2016 with a 5.15 ERA and 4.84 FIP in 155.2 IP.

Corbin more than doubled his walk total from last year, from 1.8 BB/9 to 3.8 BB/9. Yankees fans saw with Ivan Nova the effect that TJ can have one a pitcher’s control (although apparently Ray Searage can still fix that). His homers also increased from 1 HR/9 last year to 1.4 this season.

Next: Top Five Bright Spots of Yankees 2016 Season

While Corbin’s value is down, Arizona may still be inclined to move him given the extreme seller’s market for starting pitching that is expected. At 27 with two years of team control remaining, they can probably get a solid return for Corbin despite his ugly season.