Yankees Should Try to Fix Arizona Pitcher Shelby Miller
25-year-old disappointing Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Shelby Miller could be a buy-low candidate for the New York Yankees this winter.
The New York Yankees have a strong track record of fixing broken pitchers who come from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa have been getting robbed left and right in recent years, to the point where a change in leadership feels inevitable. Hopefully Brian Cashman can pull off one more heist before the pair get the axe this winter.
In 2014, Brandon McCarthy was 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA when they Yankees picked him up for nothing (sorry Vidal Nuno) for their playoff push. He was instrumental in keeping New York afloat down the stretch, pitching to a 2.89 ERA in 14 second-half starts.
The D’Backs reportedly wouldn’t let McCarthy throw his cutter that season. After the trade, McCarthy told reporters, “It’s something I know I need to be successful. It was something I didn’t totally agree with.”
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Reliever Tyler Clippard has gone through a very similar transformation since coming over from Arizona. In 2015 with the Athletics and Mets, Clippard added a slider to his repertoire, perhaps in response to the declining velocity and effectiveness of his four-seamer. The pitch virtually disappeared after signing with the Diamondbacks this winter, but Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues points out that it has returned since donning the pinstripes.
Like McCarthy, Clippard has been much more effective after leaving the desert for the Bronx. He has a 0.56 ERA in 16 innings after pitching to a 4.30 ERA in 37.2 IP with the Snakes. By most accounts, Arizona seems to be a pretty dysfunctional club at the moment. If the Yankees are able to pry away any of their struggling players this winter, they should strongly consider it.
One guy who stands out is 25-year-old right-hander Shelby Miller, who was the return in one of the most lop-sided trades in history this winter. The Diamondbacks surrendered outfielder Ender Inciarte, shortstop Dansby Swanson (the number one overall pick of the 2015 draft), and pitcher Aaron Blair for Miller and minor league arm Gabe Speier in December.
The trade looked lopsided at the time, but it looks infinitely worse after Miller completely fell apart after coming to Arizona. He has a 6.89 ERA and 5.28 FIP in 79.2 innings pitched this year, striking out just 6.2 batters per nine innings while walking four per nine as of this writing.
Miller was demoted to Triple-A in mid-July. At the time the pitcher told reporters that he was surprised he lasted as long as he did in the big leagues given his performance. He did miss time with a finger injury earlier in the season, but that on its own couldn’t explain his sustained struggles.
One bonus of his extended minor league stint this year is that it pushes back Miller’s free agency a year, to after the 2019 season. If the Yankees were to acquire him this winter, they would have three years of control over the young pitcher.
Many analysts, including MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, have noted that Miller’s mechanics have simply been a mess this season. That could explain his control issues and the slight velocity dip he’s had. If a competent coaching staff got a hold of him, there’s every reason to think they could get him right. He’s just one year removed from a 3.02 ERA and 3.45 FIP performance in 33 starts with the Braves.
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One could argue that the last thing the Yankees need is another project in the starting rotation. Pitching coach Larry Rothschild hasn’t been able to do much with Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi. However, as long as New York isn’t willing to spend big or surrender prospects, trying to buy-low on premium talent is probably GM Brian Cashman’s best option.