Yankees Jacoby Ellsbury Incapable of Living Up to Contract

When the Yankees signed Ellsbury, they hoped they were buying low. Instead, they bought themselves a conundrum.

Many people were either confounded or critical when the Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury. Seven years and $153 million is superstar money but Ellsbury had not produced at that level. The Yankees knew that when they signed him but were banking on his potential, not production. They thought he was just about to become an elite player. It hasn’t worked out that way and, now, it never will.

A part of the new Yankees role is as wise investors: they try to identify players just about ready to reach their potential, and buy low. The results have been mixed with Didi Gregorius serving as the prime, positive example.

The Diamondbacks felt he was the lesser of two shortstops because his offensive numbers did not match the defense. But the Yankees thought he might be just about to mature as a hitter and traded Shane Greene in a three way deal. 

More from Yankees News

• Yankees chose worst possible player to ring in New Year on 2023 team calendar
• Yankees make upside play, sign former Rangers top prospect outfielder
• Michael Kay’s Anthony Volpe story will get Yankees fans amped for Opening Day
• No, Yankees should not acquire Trevor Bauer for 2023
• Yankees’ Marwin González replaces Red Sox LF in Japan in logical next step

Fast forward and Didi is playing at an All-Star level; Shane Greene, not so much. Starlin Castro, Chad Green and Luis Cessa should also be counted as success stories. That’s the good news.

Warning: Stephen Drew is Mentioned Below

The bad news can be seen in players like Nathan Eovaldi and Aaron Hicks. However, even with these deals, the news is not that bad. Because the Yankees were buying low, they did not give up much. Martin Prado is having another fantastic year but he was never a homegrown prospect and Eovaldi has pitched well at times for the Yankees.

This was not a great trade but not a setback for the organization, either. Starlin Castro arrived this year and, while he is not the offensive weapon Prado is, he has played a lot better than Stephen Drew.

Aaron Hicks came over for John Ryan Murphy. For the Yankees, trading catchers is dealing from a position of strength. Murphy had no role with the Yankees so trading him for a player that has not worked out so far is no real loss.

Yankees Ellsbury’s Average Averages

The Jacoby Ellsbury contract is another of the bad examples, and probably the worst. Ellsbury’s numbers in the three seasons leading up to the trade were promising. His batting averages for those three years were .321, .271, and .298. He was going to be 31 and in the heart of his prime. He excelled as a lead off hitter, a true center fielder and a base-stealing threat.

It must have seemed to the Yankees his numbers would either go up or at least remain flat. At best, he would become a superstar and, at worst, he would remain an excellent player. They paid him $153 milion thinking they might slightly overpay in the worst case scenario. But if he took the next step and developed into a top-ten player, they were buying low.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, the critics were right. Instead of continuing an uphill climb to glory, Ellsbury seems to have left his best years on the path behind him. His highest BA over the last three years has been the same as his worst over the three previous: .271 in 2014. Last year was .257 and this year is .268. Those are also the worst averages of his career, with the exception of 2010 when he only played 18 games. Ugh.

Addition by Subtraction

And now a new reality has set in. Now, to make my point, I am going to go old school and use only the eye test. I am not going to look up any stats or facts. I encourage the sabermetric crowd to look into my assertions and correct me if I am wrong, although I know you don’t need the encouragement.

On Sunday, Ellsbury got an extra day of rest. On Monday, he played like a superstar. It seems to me this happened earlier this year. It would make sense. Ellsbury likes to play an aggressive style of baseball. But, he does not seem like he wants to play through as much discomfort other players seem to be able to handle. If his bumps and bruises slow him down, extra recuperative time might be just what he and the Yankees need.

This brings us to the Ellsbury conundrum. To be worth his contract, he must play at a superstar level. But to play that way, he needs to play fewer days. But superstars have to play almost every day to be worth their salaries. Once again: ugh.

Next: What do Hall of Famers Think of Sabermetrics

My guess is that the Yankees will be pragmatic. They will begin to play Ellsbury fewer games every year for the rest of his contract. That means he cannot ever be worth what he is being paid. It is also a cautionary tale of trying to buy low, especially when you think $153 million means underspending.