Yankees Trade Target: Starting Pitcher Lucas Giolito

The Washington Nationals are reportedly willing to offer top prospect Lucas Giolito straight up for New York Yankees reliever Andrew Miller. Should GM Brian Cashman pull the trigger?

On the surface, the opportunity to acquire the fourth best prospect in baseball (according to MLB Pipeline’s updated rankings) for a relief pitcher, even one as dominant as the Yankees Andrew Miller, seems like a no-brainer.

That is exactly the swap that the New York Yankees would reportedly decline, however, as both Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball and Joel Sherman of the New York Post have heard that the Yankees would turn down a one-for-one swap of Andrew Miller for starting pitcher Lucas Giolito.

Giolito seems to be exactly what the Yankees have been longing for over the past few years: a young, controllable starting pitcher they can build their rotation around. Yes, his first foray against big league hitters didn’t go as well as one might have hoped, but we’re talking about three starts by a 22-year-old. A learning curve should be expected.

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Remove those three appearances from the equation, and it’s really hard to see why Cashman wouldn’t be all over this. The 6’6 255 lb righty is the top pitching prospect in the game, and by all accounts has true number one potential. Here is an excerpt from MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

Giolito has the highest ceiling among Minor League pitchers, boasting an elite fastball that sits mid-to-upper-90s and a 12-to-6 curveball that he throws with power and hard, downer action. His changeup has steadily improved in the past two seasons and his confidence along with it, giving him a legitimate weapon against left-handed hitters.

It’s true that the results haven’t matched the insane stuff in the minors this year, but he still has a solid 3.08 ERA and 8.8 K/9 in 84.2 innings across three levels (High-A, Double-A, Triple-A) before making his MLB debut in July.

Joel Sherman does note, however, that this offer has not been made to the Yankees, so this rumor could just be posturing on the part of Brian Cashman and Co. in an attempt to net another prospect or two. If that’s the case, it’s undoubtedly smart of him to do so.

On the other hand, the Nationals have recently been connected to Pirates closer Mark Melancon. If Cashman has an offer of Giolito on the table, it may be smart to jump on it sooner rather than later, because Melancon would surely come far cheaper than Miller and provide similar value, at least through the end of 2016.

As the best pitcher in the minor leagues, it would be hard to match Giolito as a return in terms of quality. Cashman may be able to find more quantity elsewhere, but are any other clubs going to offer a potential ace with six years of club control for a reliever this year?