Even In Murky Waters, Yankees Must Deal Ivan Nova

The New York Yankees are not nearly as weak as they appeared to be in April. But by the same token, series wins against Cleveland, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Houston don’t tell the whole story.

Three games separate the Yankees from the trade deadline. Despite winning 11 of 17 games– and the Aroldis Chapman trade— their status is still as much up in the air as it was prior to this most recent hot streak. As the old adage goes: you’re never as good as you are when you win; and you’re never as bad as you are when you lose.

All of this is to say, at just three games above .500 after 101 games, the Yankees are mediocre. They’re neither firmly in nor firmly out of the playoff race, which leads to murky waters at Monday’s deadline.

One thing’s for sure, though: the Yankees should deal Ivan Nova. The return won’t be monumental but it would behoove them to move on from the 29-year-old free-agent-to-be. 

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On Wednesday the Rangers acquired pitchers Lucas Harrell and Dario Alvarez from the Braves for Travis Demeritte, a first round pick in the 2013 draft. Demeritte, a 21-year-old second baseman, has mashed 25 homers with a .935 OPS in Single-A this year. Harrell and Alvarez were picked up off the scrapheap by Atlanta in May.

The pitching market is incredibly thin, and the price for a pair of borderline pitchers with a combined 2016 workload of 44.1 innings was a former 30th overall pick barely old enough to go out for a beer. Rangers GM Jon Daniels called Harrell “a sinker-baller who’s going well right now,” and referred to Alvarez as “a real interesting guy.” Not exactly ringing endorsements. 

Nova comes off the books after this season and will likely not be a part of the Yankees’ future plans. With over 700 major league innings under his belt, Nova has a bit more of a track record than either pitcher the Rangers acquired, and at times throughout his career he’s been an above average starter.

And speaking of going well, he’s pitched to a 2.66 ERA with a 4:1 K/BB ratio in four July starts (he’s also slated to start tonight).

Losing Nova isn’t a big deal for the Yankees even if contending is the path they choose to take. There are in-house options ready to replace him. Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi can choose one of Luis Severino, Chad Green, and Adam Warren to slide in as the fifth starter.

There are cases to be made for any of those three to be a part of the rotation. Severino pitched fairly well Wednesday night in relief and is still a big part of the Yankees’ future. It might not be a bad thing to insert him back into the rotation while allowing him to finish off his refinement in the big leagues.

Green may have a role on this team going forward and the Yankees certainly believe in his stuff. He’s had some success while working both as a starter and reliever. The recently reacquired Warren was a starter for New York last season and it was a role he excelled in before settling in as their reliable seventh inning guy.

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If the team intends on letting Nova walk at season’s end, it makes sense to recoup as much value as possible now and allow someone in their longterm plans to take his place.

Clubs are always desperate for pitching as pennant races inch closer, and price tags are generally high regardless of the strength of the market. If Texas had to part with a prospect with upside for a couple of fringe major leaguers, Cashman must be curious to find out what Nova might bring back. It’s a wise move for the Yankees to test the bounds of the desperation that’s sure to arise in the coming days.