Yankees Face Uphill Climb to Second Wild Card Spot

With the worst record of any serious American League contender, the New York Yankees need a lot to go right in the second half of the season if they have any chance of contending.

Only four American League clubs are further out from a playoff spot than the Yankees at the All Star break: the Athletics, Angels, Rays, and Twins. Admittedly, all of those teams are more than twice as many games out as the Yankees, but it still illustrates exactly how many clubs New York needs to pass in order to win a postseason berth.

Coming into the second half, the Yankees are 5.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot. That may not sound like a lot, but with six AL “contenders” ahead of them in the standings, they face a lot of competition down the stretch. Not only will the Yankees need to completely right a sinking ship and turn things around in the second half, but they will need to cross their fingers that none of the Mariners, Royals, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, or Blue Jays do the same.

While the Yankees arguably underperformed expectations in the first half and have some room to rebound, so did many of the teams they will be competing against. In addition, several of these clubs are expected to be among the most aggressive buyers at the trade deadline, whereas the Yankees have been very cautious about adding big names in recent years.

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At 7.5 games out of first place in the AL East, a division title is almost certainly a lost cause. Playoff probabilities from Fangraphs suggest that the odds of the Yankees securing a Wild Card are almost just as remote, despite their seeming proximity to contention. As of the All Star break, it’s estimated that the Yankees have a 1.6% chance to win the division and a 6.3% chance to earn one of the two Wild Cards.

Even more discouraging, it is calculated that the Yankees have a 2% chance of winning a Division Series, a 1% chance of winning the ALCS, and just 0.5% odds of taking home their 28th World Series championship in 2016. That’s…not great.

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Does this mean the Yankees can’t go on a tear and be the best team in baseball in the second half? Of course not. You can’t predict baseball Suzyn. But should the Yankees take these facts into account when crafting their strategy at the upcoming trade deadline? You bet they should.