The Yankees’ Playoff Odds are on the Upswing

Thanks to the Yankees’ first legitimate winning streak of the season (five games and counting going into Tuesday night), they have climbed their way out of the AL East basement for the first time since April 24.

While the sweep of the mediocre A’s needs to be taken with a grain of salt, the team has been playing undeniably better of late, winning four of their last five series and seeing signs of life from several key contributors who had been struggling in the early going.

New York has joined the mob of American League teams playing roughly .500 ball in 2016. The Twins and the Astros are the AL only clubs who appear to be out of contention at this point, and given the young talent both organizations possess, it isn’t absurd to expect a mid-season push from either. The crowded field and the two Wild Card format means the playoff picture is wide open at this point. According to Fangraphs’ projections, 12 of the 15 AL teams currently have playoff odds above 18%, with only the Twins, Athletics, and Angels in the single digits.

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The Yankees recent turnaround has restored their playoff odds to 22%, which is just short of their projected chances prior to the season. New York’s slow start certainly hurt them, but at this point the club has more or less dug themselves out of that early hole and are the middle-of-the-pack contender most pundits expected coming into the year. Fangraphs is not a big believer in the true talent of their roster, expecting just a .505 winning percentage the rest of the way, which would put them at roughly 81-81.

That kind of mediocrity is a double edged sword. While it might keep them within shouting distance of the second Wild Card going into September, it also might discourage the Yankees from selling off assets at the deadline that could help fuel their rebuild. Hopefully, the team’s recent winning ways continue and this is all a moot point. With the offense finally beginning to kick into gear (with the notable exception of Mark Teixeira), Alex Rodriguez close to returning from injury, and the recent strong starting pitching performances, there are legitimate reasons to think that New York’s newfound success is no mirage. With much of the 2015 club that sat in first place for the majority of the season still intact, there’s no reason that they can’t replicate that success in 2016.