A Sonny Gray Trade Should be the Yankees’ Top Priority

The Nationals surprising extension of Stephen Strasburg on Tuesday dramatically altered the landscape for teams like the Yankees that are looking to upgrade their starting pitching.

Although New York seemed unlikely to spend big on Strasburg this winter given their desire to get under the luxury tax threshold, removing the top available free agent starter from what was already expected to be an extremely thin market will further jack up the price on what is already MLB’s most valuable commodity. This could lead to flawed free agent hurlers like Rich Hill, Andrew Cashner, and our own Ivan Nova landing hugely inflated contracts.

Related Story: Will the Yankees retain Ivan Nova?

If the Yankees choose to once again forego free agency, their only avenue for upgrading their struggling rotation would be through trades. New York doesn’t have much starting pitching depth in the upper levels of their minor league system. With both James Kaprielian and Domingo Acevedo currently on the DL, no help from top pitching prospects seems imminent. One elite starter who may be available either at the deadline or this winter is Oakland’s ace Sonny Gray.

The Athletics once again find themselves in the basement of the AL West and Billy Beane has never been shy about trading his stars. The 26-year-old Gray will hit arbitration this winter for the first time, which is always going to be a consideration for the cost-conscious As. The Yankees certainly have the pieces to interest the A’s. GM Brian Cashman has been reluctant to trade top prospects Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, and Jorge Mateo, but for a young ace with three-plus years of control remaining, he would probably make an exception. Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, and Dellin Betances could all be made available as well for Beane to acquire and flip at next year’s deadline.

One complication could be Gray’s slow start. He has a 6.00 ERA and 4.47 FIP through his first seven starts. His home run rate has almost doubled over last year’s mark to 1.2 per nine innings. He’s also really struggled with his control, seeing his BB/9 balloon to 4.2. There has been a slight dip in his velocity (about 0.5 mph from his career average fastball), but at 26 and in his third full season he’s likely far from his decline.

Gray’s struggles could present an opportunity for Cashman to acquire him at something of a discount, but that seems unlikely given the young starter’s high profile. Beane is smart enough to wait until Gray regains his peak value before making a move, especially with so many teams hungry for rotation help.

The Yankees were not shy about their desire to add young controllable starting pitching this winter, with none of their starters besides Luis Severino controlled beyond 2017. Adding Sonny Gray would work as both a rebuilding and win-now move, giving them a second front-line starter to pair with Masahiro Tanaka at the top of the rotation. They would control Gray at a discount through his age 29 season and have that time to work out an extension with one of the game’s best pitchers if everything went according to plan. He is their best bet to jumpstart this rebuild and put a contender back on the field as soon as next season.

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