How the Yankees Should Manage Luis Severino’s Innings

On Thursday morning, Joe Girardi was asked about his expectations for Luis Severino, and he told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the 22-year old could handle 200 innings.

When general manager Brian Cashman and pitching coach Larry Rothschild chimed in, they took a different route saying they’d rather not put a number on it.

Severino, who celebrated his 22nd birthday on Friday, was remarkable in his 11-starts in 2015 going 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA in pinstripes while earning a postseason roster spot. If the Yankees had advanced into the American League Division Series, the rookie from the Dominican Republic would have earned a start.

In 2013, the right-hander threw 44 innings with the GCL Yankees and Charleston. The next year, he increased his total to 113 innings with Charleston, Tampa, and Trenton. Last season he threw a grand total of 161.2 innings combined between Trenton, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the Bronx. So at first glance 200 innings doesn’t seem like anything the young phenom can’t handle.

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However, if you dig deep and take a look at the past rookie sensations that increased their innings as top pitching prospects, you don’t have the greatest results.

Chien-Ming Wang totaled 448.2 innings in his minor league career, 150.1 in the season of his MLB debut, and 218 innings in his first full season. Phil Hughes totaled 270.1 minor league innings, 110.1 in the season of his MLB debut and 176.1 innings in his first full season as a starter. Joba Chamberlain pitched in 88.1 innings in the minors, 112 in the year of his MLB debut and 157.1 innings during his first full season as a starter. Severino totaled 320.1 innings in the minors and 161.2 in his MLB debut season with his first full season expected to be in 2016.

Those numbers are hard to compare with the fact that Hughes went from the rotation to the bullpen back to the rotation again, and Joba was placed under the “Joba Rules” made to manage his innings, but Severino is the only one out of the players mentioned who has both youth and minor league innings going for him.

Chamberlain was 21 and Hughes was 20 when they first appeared in the majors, but none of them pitched as many years in the minors as Severino did. All of their workloads were handled poorly and Wang was able to handle a hefty workload, as he was already 25 years old.

Wang enjoyed two years of success including coming in second for the AL Cy Young award in 2006, but was never the same after an ankle injury in 2008. He experienced velocity decline and hasn’t returned to his ace-form since. Chamberlain was arguably ruined by the “Joba Rules” and Hughes went back and fourth from the rotation to the bullpen, had one successful year as a Yankee starter (2010), but it seems as if he needed a change of scenery. He has enjoyed two solid seasons with the Minnesota Twins.

Back when they were coming through the system, the Yankees had them toss a lot of innings per start in the minors and monitor their big league innings more tightly. They must avoid this strategy with Severino as he embarks on his first full season.

They could still manage him, however, by limiting his innings per start.

To keep Severino at pace with his young arm, he could pitch around 6 innings per start in 2016, in order to avoid a shut down at the end of the year. 6 innings per start would bring him to 180 innings over 30 starts, which is certainly a jump he could handle (almost a 40 inning jump).

This could be the way the Yankees go. They had him in the playoff rotation (of course he never pitched) justified by the use of the strategy of lowering his innings per start. The question for New York now is, will they continue to limit the innings or let him turn lose and strive for 200 until they have to shut him down?

The last time the Yankees had a starter to go 200 innings was when CC Sabathia pitched 211 and Hiroki Kuroda pitched 201.1 innings in 2013. In 2015, Sabathia led the team with 167.1 innings pitched.

What do you think Yankee fans? Should they let Severino loose and get to the 200 inning plateau, or limit his starts in order to use him for the entire year? Let us know in the comments below!

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