New York Yankees Trade Targets: Does Kyle Lohse Fit?

The New York Yankees could still be looking at starting pitching help. Masahiro Tanaka was filthy yesterday, but can he really be counted on to make it for the long haul? Ivan Nova is coming back soon, but what if he hits a bump on the road to recovery? Will Adam Warren be on an innings limit and can he continue pitching well?

Luis Severino was just promoted to AAA, but he could be on an limit as well, and who knows if the Yankees will bring him up. (They don’t exactly have the best track record in developing their pitching prospects)

Last year, the Yankees turned Vidal Nuno into Brandon McCarthy.  McCarthy was 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA with Arizona. For the Yankees? 7-5 with a 2.89.

Meet a possible Brandon McCarthy 2.0. Kyle Lohse.

Lohse, like McCarthy did last season is in the final year of his contract. Lohse currently sits at 3-6 with a 6.50 ERA. He has a 5.00 FIP and a 4.07 XFIP.

There are some stats though to make you think that Lohse can turn this around.

His K/9 is up from last season (7.3 from 6.4). His BABIP against is .305. Last year? .268. His runners left on base percentage is up 11 percent. His Homerun/Fly Ball rate has doubled from 8% to 16%. He’s clearly pitched in some really bad luck.

His groudball rate at this time is below 40% for the first time since 2007 per Fangraphs. The one thing that could fix that, like McCarthy using his cutter again, is Lohse using his curveball more.

His fastball rate is down one percent from last year (45%-44%). His changeup rate has increased five percent from 12 to 17. Meanwhile his curveball rate is down four percent this year. His velocity is still there. In fact, he’s throwing his curve and change a little harder than in the past.

His ERA at home is 8.41 while on the road it’s at 4.00. Maybe he just needs to get out of Miller Park to return to league average.

The Yankees may need another arm to help bolster the rotation. Lohse could be that guy and they could get him cheaply, especially if they are willing to take on the money. Lohse’s deal expires after this season so it won’t effect their long term plan of relying more on the system.

It’ll make sense for the Yankees. Now let’s see if they do that.

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