Who Should The Yankees Sign This Winter?

The Yankees have a unique ballpark that tends to cater to home run hitters. Most years the Yankees can be seen at or near the top of the home runs hit list. Unfortunately, this year they did just the opposite. The Yankees really struggled to hit home runs. More importantly, the Yankees gave up the most home runs in the American League. Yankees pitching was seen as a major strength this season, but there are elements of it that could really use some help.

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Yankees were eighth in in AL in earned runs given up, dead in the middle of the pack. Pitchers combined to throw 1453 innings, or 4,359 outs. The team was third in the AL in strikeouts, with 1,370, 12^th in ground outs with 1,465, and 11^th in fly outs at 1,427. The part that we should take note in is that the Yankees were 14^th in the AL with only 87 ground into a double play outs. The Yankees and the Rays were the only teams that had fewer than 100, and most had more than 120. Fewer GIDP means pitchers are working more pitches than they need to, leading to fatigue, increased pressure on the bullpen, and ultimately more runs.

Having a high number of strikeouts is a great problem to have. Pitchers are throwing more pitches, but not giving the opportunity to the batter to get the ball in play. I’d keep that where it is any day of the week. One area that the Yankees need to improve on is their walks. The Yankees actually led the league in fewest walks given up with just 398 BBs. In comparison, 11 teams had more than 460 walks and 3 teams had more than 500.

Why would I make such an asinine comment that the Yankees need to walk more people? Refer back to my first paragraph. The Yankees gave up the most home runs in the AL. They also average about one GIDP per two games played. While strikeouts are cutting down a lot of potential damage, the Yankees pitchers are leaving the ball in the zone too often. A walk isn’t a bad thing when the alternative is a home run. The Yankees were second in the AL in stolen bases given up, allowing just 77. Catcher Brian McCann also led the league in percentage of players thrown out.

Everything stated above spells that the Yankees need both a better middle infield combo and more groundout pitchers. A better middle infield combo is sure to happen now that Derek Jeter has retired and the Yankees will have young blood at second base most likely. If the Yankees could just get more ground outs from its pitching staff, the team would see more double plays and fewer home runs given up. Chien-Ming Wang won 19 games two years in a row for New York in 2006 and 2007. His strikeout numbers were relatively terrible, at 76 and 104 in 218.0 and 199.1 innings pitched, respectively. The difference in those two years? He gave up 12, then 9 home runs. Today it is not uncommon to see a pitcher give up over twenty home runs in a season. The Yankees obviously play half their games in the Bronx. Bringing pitchers that get a ton of ground ball outs will benefit the team greatly.

Masahiro Tanaka only played half the season and even he gave up 15 home runs. He is an anomaly because of how many of them were solo home runs and he still had a 2.77 ERA on the season. A WHIP of 1.06 will do that. A great example of a pitcher that the Yankees will need to have in the rotation next season is Brandon McCarthy. Between his time in Arizona and the Yankees, McCarthy was ninth in all of baseball, not just the American league, with 258 ground ball outs in exactly 200.0 innings. If every inning was thrown by McCarthy this year, the team would theoretically end with 1,874.37 ground ball outs. Beyond that, he also had 175 strikeouts. While he gave up 25 home runs this year, 15 of those were with Arizona. A full year in New York will show that he is a much better pitcher than he even looks in this year’s stat line.

Looking into this a little more, it appears the Yankees need to stay away from James Shields. Not only has he shown his true colors in the playoffs, but he gave up 23 home runs this year and was 13^th in the MLB with 235 fly outs. Imagine how many more of those would be home runs in Yankee Stadium. Phil Hughes looked like he had a great year, right? He was 4^th in baseball with 260 fly ball outs. He seemed good this year because of how large Target Field is the same way he seemed poor because of how small Yankee Stadium is. Hughes will always be an average pitcher that gives up the long ball a little too much.

Jon Lester had 221 fly ball outs and 220 strikeouts. He benefited from how huge the field in Oakland is, but also had one of the smallest in Boston. His 16 home runs is right where it should be, if not a little high. Importantly, he was 12^th in all of baseball with 21 GIDP. He knows when to use the ground ball to get out of a negative situation. Lastly, Max Scherzer was once again a strikeout machine at 252. Batters hit just .238 against him, but had the 21^st most fly ball outs at 226. He gave up 18 home runs this season in a park that plays relatively large. His strikeouts offset batters getting the ball in the air against him, but how long will he have the same arm velocity? He was third in baseball with 3638 pitches thrown this season. He is due for a breakdown in the same fashion we saw Justin Verlander begin to falter.

There are a lot of options for the Yankees this off-season when it comes to starting pitching. There are also a variety of ways to determine who would be the best option for the team. Between the big three free agents next season, the Yankees should be looking for the services of Lester. Not only does he have the advantage of pitching successfully pitching in the AL East already, but his stats play best to Yankee stadium.

Being a lefty, he will face more righties, forcing them to hit to the larger part of the park. His high strikeouts and use of the ground ball when he needs it will make him most effective in Yankee Stadium. Scherzer is a close second because of his strikeouts, but he will become less effective long before his contract is over.

Finally, Shields has no business pitching in Yankee Stadium. He will be getting big time money this off-season and he will not find success in the Bronx if he ends up in pinstripes. The Yankees would be better off spending that money elsewhere, or not at all. McCarthy is a must to bring back to the Bronx. The rest will play to the salaries each pitcher expects.

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An Analytical Look At Who The Yankees Should Sign This Off-Season

By Scott Alfano | Oct 29, 2014