Having an ace in October is something that has become increasingly essential in recent years. This was put on full display in 2014, as Madison Bumgarner led the San Francisco Giants to a World Series by picking up two World Series wins, a save, and four total wins throughout the postseason, also picking up the NLCS and World Series MVP in the process.
It is the same reason the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays traded for Johnny Cueto and David Price, respectively, knowing that both pitchers are likely to flee in free agency. While the New York Yankees could have made a deal for either pitcher, they chose instead to hang on to their prospects, and continue to build for the future.
This brings us to an important question: If the Yankees win one of the two Wild Card spots, who would Joe Girardi send to the mound? The only Yankees starter, outside of the injured CC Sabathia, with MLB playoff experience is Ivan Nova, and he’s only made two postseason starts, both coming in 2011. It’s likely neither of these two will get their number called by Girardi, if need be.
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That leaves four pitchers: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, and Luis Severino. Tanaka, of course, has experience pitching in the postseason in Japan, but the MLB is much tougher, but he was signed to be an ace and could be the most logical choice. Pineda has struggled of late, pitching to an ERA of 7.88 over his last three starts and 5.49 over his last eight. He also recently came off the disabled list.
Eovaldi has been the opposite of Pineda. Eovaldi hasn’t lost a game since his return to Miami, which saw him allow eight runs, while lasting just 2/3 of an inning. Although he struggled Sunday versus the Atlanta Braves, he has gone 9-0 in a span of 13 starts since the Miami start, pitching to an ERA of 3.32. Much of this can be credited to developing a splitter.
One scout certainly believes that Eovaldi is the Yankees best starter at the moment:
"He is the best [starter] the Yankees have right now. He always had trouble against lefties. He never had a suitable changeup to deal with them. Now he is throwing a split that is 89=92 [mph] and a fastball that can get up to 99-100. It is just nasty. The game I saw him, it was devastating."
Severino might be pitching better than anyone in the group, but he is still a rookie with only five starts to his name. The fact that he has pitched to an ERA of 2.17, while striking out nine batters per 9 IP, is a great sign for the future, but would Girardi really put a one-game playoff in the hands of a rookie? It seems highly unlikely, as Girardi is generally hesitant to trust rookies.
Of course, a lot can change between now and the end of the season. The Yankees could overtake the Blue Jays for the division lead, or come game 162 the division and/or Wild Card race might not be decided, which would mean that the team wouldn’t have the luxury of choosing their starter in a one-game playoff.
Although the offense has broken out of a slump, the Yankees will need all four pitchers to continue to pitch strong throughout September, and into October. If it were up to me, who would start either a one-game playoff game or a win-or-go-home game?
Tanaka would be my choice, as he was signed to be a big-game pitcher. Eovaldi and Pineda have both been great at times, but have been far too inconsistent, and although Severino doesn’t seem fazed by pressure, it wouldn’t be wise to put the season on the arm of somebody who will only have two months of Major League experience under his belt.
What do you think Yankees fans? Who would you choose to start a win-or-go-home game? Would it be one of the four pitchers mentioned above, or even Sabathia or Nova? Let us know in the comments below.
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