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Yankees News: Farm System Valued as Middle-of-the-Pack

By Brendan Fitzgerald

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The New York Yankees‘ farm system hasn’t produced many above-average players since the historic collection of MLB arrivals of Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada. The list is basically Brett Gardner, Robinson Cano, and David Robertson. However, the team is starting to turn this poor trend around through some effective drafting and international signings the past few years. This admirable farm system outlook is corroborated with valuations from Dave Cameron of Fangraphs.com. 

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Cameron combined the work Kiley McDaniel (also from Fangraphs) along with Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli (from the Point of Pittsburgh) to produce these farm system valuations. McDaniel provided the future value (and scouting reports) of current prospects while Creagh and DiMiceli provided the surplus value for each tier of prospect. Cameron had to make a slight adjustment so that future value and surplus value could be appropriately measured in concert. For instance, a 70 future value position player is worth $55M in surplus value. A 50 future value pitcher is worth $10M in surplus value.

The values range from the Chicago Cubs at $225M in surplus value to the Detroit Tigers at $10M in surplus value. The Yankees are tied for 12th in Major League Baseball at $85M in surplus value. The players in McDaniel’s top 200 rankings that comprise this valuation are Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Jacob Lindgren, Jorge Mateo, Greg Bird, Ian Clarkin, and Rob Refsnyder. The relative values, how the Yankees rank compared to the rest of the league, are more instructive than the absolute values as this was just  a rough calculation. Also, this exercise only includes the top 200 ranked prospects from McDaniel’s list. It still provides a good approximation of farm system values because as Cameron notes, ” As has been supported by essentially every analysis of prospect performance, the players at the high end are worth far more than the guys towards the bottom of the list, as one great prospect is likely to outperform even a half dozen lower level guys.”

The Yankees farm system is decent right now and projects to become even better with advancement from young international players, two first round picks for the draft this summer (#16 and #30 overall), and the very real possibility that they sign Yoan Moncada within the next week or so. The retirement of Derek Jeter marked the end of any ties to the late-’90s dynasty. Drafting and developing well is a necessary step in building the next great Yankees’ team.

Next: The Yankees' Bullpen IS The Weapon

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