Yankees 2015 Projection

The Yankees have had a fair amount of roster turnover this off-season. Additions include Didi Gregorius, Nathan Eovaldi, and Garrett Jones, while the subtractions are Derek Jeter, Shane Greene, Brandon McCarthy and Hiroki Kuroda. The effect of all these roster alterations are captured by Fangraphs’ projection system. 

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The system currently projects the Yankees to finish with an 83-79 record in 2015 with 4.15 runs scored per game and 4.04 runs allowed per game. This places them tied for the 11th best record in all of baseball, right in the thick of the middle of the bell curve. On its face, that looks pretty decent. However, this projection places them tied for 3rd in the division with the Rays, behind both the Blue Jays (84-78) and Red Sox (87-75). The Orioles currently project at 79-83.

These projections will change slightly between now and the start of the season as the Yankees and other teams tinker with their rosters. Large deviations from the current projections are unlikely and a larger point remains: the Yankees are in a spot on the win curve where each marginal win has added value because the team currently projects as being just on the verge of a playoff spot. Each additional win between 83 and 90 has more value than additional wins between 70 and 80 or 90 and 100. This is due to the added revenue achieved from a race to make the playoffs and the actual playoffs themselves. This is especially true for a large market team like the Yankees. Teams in this space should be looking to add more projected wins this offseason.

The 13 position players for the opening day roster are largely figured out. Only a spring training roster battle for the second base job (Robert Refsnyder, Jose Pirela, and maybe a veteran camp invite) and back-up catcher spot (out of options Austin Romine and John Ryan Murphy) are yet to be decided. There remain, however, openings on the pitching side, namely the rotation. Ivan Nova won’t be ready to start the season and injury questions surround Michael Pineda, C.C. Sabathia, and Masahiro Tanaka. Chris Capuano profiles better as a longman/spot starter. Nathan Eovaldi was a welcome addition, but signing Max Scherzer would push this team from about a .500 club looking for positive variance from older players into true contender range.

Scherzer over Capuano projects around a 4-5 win upgrade, which would push the Yankees into the upper 80s in win total. They are currently in that sweetspot on the marginal win curve where they should continue adding 2015 wins this off-season. Unfortunately, the payroll might be tapped out and only minor moves will be made.