Yankees-Tarik Skubal rumor creates great possibilities, but can fans believe it?

Before the offseason officially began, every pundit, insider and analyst declared the Dodgers and Mets as the two teams in the lead for Tarik Skubal in free agency. Since then, the Cubs have entered the chat. And now ... the Yankees? Did we hear that right?

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel recently reported that New York is "thinking" about a Skubal pursuit before the lockout begins on Dec. 1, citing the possibility that Brian Cashman and the front office could "trade from their stockpile of pitchers."

Skubal is widely expected to land a contract of at least $300 million, with aggressive projections putting him in the $400 million range. The Yankees paid Gerrit Cole $324 million back in 2019, so it's not like they'd be opposed to shelling out top dollar for one of the best pitchers in the game.

That said, while the Yankees have spent in recent seasons and consistently have one of the highest payrolls in the sport, they have not thrown caution to the wind in quite some time (at least in the manner that the Dodgers and Mets have). They made a competitive offer for Juan Soto and paid Max Fried and Cody Bellinger, but the continuous playoff embarrassments make it all feel hollow, especially when their trade deadline endeavors fail time and time again.

Additionally, back in 2021 before that mini lockout suspended transactions for a few months, the Yankees made zero impact additions as they watched Corey Seager, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kevin Gausman (among others) sign elsewhere despite all of those players representing pressing needs.

So how much can we really believe this rumor? Often times the Yankees are mentioned alongside the biggest names in the sport because that's just standard operating procedure, but it doesn't really go anywhere.

Yankees-Tarik Skubal free agency rumor and what it might mean for 2027

If the Yankees wanted to go full cutthroat with their new private equity backing, paying for Skubal and keeping the star-studded pitching staff intact would send a message for their intentions in 2027 and 2028 (the final year of Gerrit Cole's contract). It's not out of the realm of possibility; it's just not likely.

The more likely approach? Sign Skubal and clear payroll elsewhere. Start with a Ryan McMahon trade and eat half of his $16 million salary. Whatever the Giancarlo Stanton reports are, they should probably figure out a buyout situation there. Stanton is owed $35 million through 2027 (but the Marlins are paying $20 million of it). After all the pain he's caused the Yankees, the least he could do is consider surrendering $15 million he surely doesn't need. Unlikely, but worth throwing out there for this experiment.

In terms of small moves, get rid of Clarke Schmidt ($4.5 million), Luis Gil ($2.2 million) and Fernando Cruz ($3 million) before the non-tender deadline. That's $10 million of sunk costs right there. Trade them or non-tender them.

If they really wanted to get ambitious, we see no reason they wouldn't be able to trade Carlos Rodón. He has two years and $55 million remaining on his albatross contract. Teams need pitching with the free agent market thin. That's about the only pitcher that makes sense to trade. Cam Schlittler isn't going anywhere. Cole isn't going anywhere. Fried isn't going anywhere. Ryan Weathers could be traded, but that doesn't make much sense given his value still under team control.

Not to mention, the Yankees are done paying down dead money. They made their final Aaron Hicks and DJ LeMahieu payments last year with Trent Grisham ($22 million), Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($10 million), Paul Goldschmidt ($4 million) and Tim Hill ($3 million) coming off the books. Some of that will be offset but rising arb costs for Schlittler, Anthony Volpe, Luis Garcia Jr., Jose Caballero and Ben Rice, but it's nothing objectionable.

In this dream scenario, if the Yankees get rid of McMahon (very possible), Stanton (unlikely), Rodón (possible) and the trio of Schmidt/Gil/Cruz, that creates $57 million of payroll flexibility for 2027 (and a little over $30 million for 2028). That $57 million can go toward Skubal's AAV, a back-end reliever, a backup catcher, and a capable second or third baseman.

Other upgrades can come via the trade market. The Yankees have plenty of prospects they can deal for major league talent. If anybody out there is arguing they need more offensive help, we wouldn't rebuke that, but there's just not enough out there in free agency to justify overspending. The impact move comes in the form of Skubal, followed by strategic roster tinkering.

We'll be generous and give this a 30% chance of happening. Feel free to operate with a creative mind, but understand the Yankees' link to Skubal is more of a sensible journalism practice more than anything.

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