Yankees' realistic path to AL East title is pretty bleak as Rays keep distance

After seven months of baseball, all that’s left of the Yankees' season is 24 games. There are just a few more series and roadtrips to flip a division race that increasingly feels like it's already decided. Yankee fans had their fate laid out this week, and it's worth sitting with for a second.

The math isn't pretty: The Yankees basically have to play elite baseball for the entirety of those 24 games. And it's not an exaggeration to say their AL East chances are on life support right now.

Here's the part that shouldn't get lost in that math, though. The fact that the Yankees are even part of this conversation at all is impressive given the year they've had. This roster hasn't had its actual Opening Day lineup on the field together in months. Aaron Judge has been fighting through a rib injury for most of the year. Giancarlo Stanton hasn't sniffed a game since April. The rotation has been without Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and Ryan Weathers for extended periods. Cody Bellinger, this year's All-Star Game MVP, went down July 25 with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and didn't return until August 23, missing 25 games. Luis Gil, Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez were demoted to Triple-A. It's been a pretty wild ride.

Through all of that, New York has still managed to hold off a very scary Boston team, one that's been playing as well as anybody in baseball for months, for second place in the division and the top Wild Card spot.

The Yankees' pitching staff has carried the team as NYY leads Wild Card

The reason they've survived it isn't a secret. The rotation has been the backbone of this whole season. Cam Schlittler has pitched like a legitimate Cy Young candidate, and Cole, Rodón, and Fried have each posted an ERA below 3.25 despite their own interruptions along the way.

That kind of front-line pitching limits damage on nights the offense goes quiet, which has been often enough this year to matter. The bullpen has done its part too, with breakout seasons from Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick helping bridge the gap to Bendnar to close out games. A team that's outscored its opponents by 117 runs this season doesn't get there by accident, even with as many holes as this lineup has had to plug.

So yes, the division is a real longshot right now. But there's a version of the next three weeks that still gives this fanbase something concrete to hope for. One reply to the above Twitter thread put it well: if the Yankees can cut the gap to four games by the time Tampa Bay comes to the Bronx for a four-game series (thanks to a rain out) starting on the 22nd, New York controls its own destiny, both for the division and for the best record in the American League.

That's a tangible, specific target. With Bellinger back in the lineup and Judge and Stanton (possibly) both further along in their recoveries, it's not an unreasonable one either. Life support is probably a strong way to put it. But this team has spent all season proving it doesn't need a full lineup to hang around. Just put some pressure on the Rays, and give fans a reason to watch that final homestand a lot closer than the math alone might suggest.

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