Yankees offense's late-inning heroics could give them an important playoff advantage

Assuming the New York Yankees are without Aaron Judge for the entirety of their postseason journey, it can be hard to see how the team will score enough runs to truly make some noise. Things have been better of late, but for a long stretch this year, the offense was downright anemic without the three-time MVP, and now they're set to face some of the best pitching staffs in the game.

However, there is a silver lining that could make New York look more competitive than we think. The Yankees have quietly excelled in high-leverage situations this season, posting a 119 wRC+ when the pressure is on, a mark that ranks second in baseball. For much of the season, they've done most of their damage in the late innings with a top-ranked wRC+ in innings seven through nine.

For years, it has felt as if New York's top-ranked offenses have been a product of empty calories. Judge's struggles in the playoffs have been the prime example of this feeling, and even in past regular seasons, it has felt like the club either jumps out early and wins big, or flounders in big spots without those early runs. This year, things have been different.

A big reason for the late-inning surge has been the superb play of Ben Rice. Not only is Rice more deserving of MVP buzz, but his performance in high-leverage situations should bolster his case.

The 27-year-old is hitting .375/.483/.729 when the pressure is on, and his 224 wRC+ leads the league by a wide margin in these clutch moments. Second place belongs to Rafael Devers, who comes in 31 points lower at 193. Junior Caminero has been billed as the clutchest of the clutch, but his 141 wRC+ in high-leverage situations pales in comparison to Rice's mark.

Rice isn't the only Yankee hitter to excel here, either. Some of the sample sizes are small, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. with a 172 wRC+, George Lombard Jr. with a 169 mark, and Luis Garcia Jr. with a 166 performance are all examples of Yankees hitters who have raised their games when it matters most.

The Yankees' high-leverage performance is encouraging, but another obstacle threatens postseason success

Heading into October with a lineup that has a flair for performing in the clutch and a dominant starting rotation seems like a recipe for success, or at the very least, a functional way to overcome the loss of a superstar like Judge.

What's important here is coming through when it matters most, not padding the box score, so it's easy to look at this and feel like the Yankees are better positioned for a deep run than we originally thought.

However, there's a threat that looms that could derail it all. If the lineup struggles to put up runs early, but the rotation does its job, it seems logical, given these stats, to assume that New York will come out on top more often than not. There's another ingredient that must be added for this blueprint to work, though, and that's a bullpen that can perform in terms of holding leads or maintaining slim deficits so the bats get a chance to work that late-inning magic.

We've been ringing the alarm about the state of the Yankees' bullpen all season, as a lack of depth and overuse of the top options have long felt like looming threats that could ultimately derail what had been a successful unit based on actual production. Brian Cashman's trade deadline plan was to stick his head in the sand, ignore the problem, and hope that injury returns from Clarke Schmidt and others would save the day.

Instead, Schmidt is injured again, and the bullpen's depth has thinned substantially while the productive arms have tired. New York's relievers posted a 4.77 FIP in September, and their 1.48 HR/9 in the season's final month serves as a bad omen.

Simply put, the high-leverage advantage the Yankees' lineup enjoys can quickly be erased by bullpen meltdowns, and that is a real concern that could derail what could otherwise be a promising October.

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