Yankees might've hit the jackpot after Red Sox reveal rotation for Marlins series

We've reached the point in the year where every division game is critical for the New York Yankees. To be fair, every game technically counts the same, but by this point in the calendar, we know who we have to fight off and who needs to be caught. So while the Yankees prepare for the upcoming series against the Houston Astros, it's worth taking a look ahead at what the weekend has in store when the Boston Red Sox come to town for a four-game set.

The Red Sox aren't nearly as hot as they once were, but they can't be discounted, either. They have hopped firmly back into the playoff race, and have gained ground on New York. In fact, although they've cooled off, they're still 13-8 with a plus-44 run differential in August. They're also 5-4 against the Yankees, thanks in no small part to an egregious four-game sweep the Yankees suffered during the June 25-28 matchup in Fenway.

If the Yankees take care of business when the Red Sox visit the Bronx this weekend, it will be a devastating blow to Boston's chances at catching up in the standings. Ultimately, New York needs to have its sights on the Tampa Bay Rays and the division crown, so dispatching the Red Sox would be a double bonus, granting the team breathing room while helping to propel them forward.

And there's some good news on that front. The Red Sox take on the Miami Marlins this week in the tune-up for the weekend's battle of the titans, and they'll be using up their best starting pitchers, Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle, in the process.

The Yankees catch a break as Payton Tolle and Sonny Gray are unlikely to pitch for the Red Sox this weekend

The stars have seemed to align for the Yankees with regard to how Boston's starting rotation will shake out. As of now, the probable starters are Patrick Sandoval on Friday, Jake Bennett for the first game of Saturday's doubleheader, a potential bullpen game in the second matchup on Saturday, and Ranger Suarez on Sunday.

That's big because Tolle is midway through a breakout rookie campaign (fueled in part by his amazing story of recovering from the loss of his mother), posting a 3.08 ERA over 120 innings. Meanwhile, Gray has been annoyingly good this season, joining Tim Wakefield as the only pitchers in Red Sox history in the last 50 years to win 16 of their first 24 outings. He has a formidable 2.79 ERA on the year.

Instead, the Yankees get Sandoval, who missed two years due to Tommy John surgery and some setbacks in his recovery. He has struggled mightily since returning to action with a 4.54 ERA over eight starts. When he last pitched in 2024, he wasn't very good either, pitching to the tune of a 5.08 ERA.

As for Bennett, he's pitched well over his first 14 big league starts, posting a 3.46 ERA. With that said, the 120 innings he has thrown this season between Triple-A work and the majors is by far the most he's thrown in a single season, and he could be hitting a wall with a 5.29 ERA over his last six starts.

Suarez might seem like a tough task to close things out but he too is vulnerable. Boston's prized free-agent acquisition has a 3.41 ERA on the season, but he's hit a wall of late with a 5.11 ERA since July 1.

The Yankees bats have to capitalize on these favorable matchups. New York will likely be throwing Carlos Rodón and Will Warren during the series, unless they shuffle things around to accommodate it. The other two starters are still to be determined amid Ryan Weathers' injury and the complexity of the doubleheader. The return of Cody Bellinger and the eight-run explosion in the series finale against Toronto bodes well. Now, they'll just have to take care of business against their arch rival's weaker starters.

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