Yankees' latest top 30 prospects list lowlighted by former big name's remarkable fall

Despite what you've heard, the New York Yankees' farm system is on the up and up. They've depleted their pitching reserves in several recent trades, but have still managed to restack and rebuild quickly, keeping the majority of their upper-tier arms. They've struggled to get big bats over the Triple-A hump in recent years, but maybe Ben Rice will finally be the turning point (here's hoping). While the MLB roster seems stuck in neutral, the farm is actually giving fans reason to believe.

But that doesn't mean they've been immune to flops, and international signee Roderick Arias might be the biggest one of all over the past five years. His downward trajectory was firmly cemented on Baseball America's latest roundup of the Yankees system's top 30 prospects. Not only did he drop from his pre-2025 slot in the top 10, but he fell off the list entirely.

MLB Pipeline's midseason rerank last summer should've primed you for Baseball America to share a similar harsh take. After all, Pipeline went from Arias in the No. 7 slot to No. 21 after he managed to slog through another summer at the lower levels.

His best-case scenario for re-appraisal seemed like the Brando Mayea treatment — "Sure, we haven't seen much of anything yet, but we know he's toolsy, so ... mid-20s." Unfortunately, he didn't even receive that level of grace. Nowhere to be found.

Yankees' Top 30 prospects on Baseball America has no room for Roderick Arias

This group is loaded with talent, including a few fresh faces we haven't gotten a great look at yet. Thatcher Hurd went down with Tommy John surgery before his 2025 campaign could even begin. Mac Heuer, drafted in 2025, doesn't have a professional inning under his belt yet. Bryce Cunningham's season was interrupted by injury, and Dillon Lewis hasn't gotten a chance to shine at the upper levels yet.

But sneaking Arias into the 20s would've been totally doable, even in a stronger system. The fact that he was held out entirely tells you his downfall is legitimate, both on the field and behind the scenes. The consensus No. 1 prospect of the 2022 international free agent class is still young enough to recover. He's still just 21 years old. But he will not be doing so in the spotlight; league evaluators have officially lost their patience with his long, loping swing and lack of game power/overload of strikeouts (a ridiculous 171 in 124 games in 2024, followed by 134/103 last year).

Arias will be starting at Low-A Tampa again in 2026 for the third consecutive year, most likely. And he'll be doing so from the edge of minor-league free agency. No wonder the Yankees believed they needed an international overhaul if this is how their money's being spent (though, again ... Arias was a consensus pick).