Yankees just received confirmation not to give Trent Grisham the qualifying offer

One of the toughest things to peg this offseason will be what Trent Grisham's true value will be. After a spectacular (but outlier) season with the New York Yankees, projections range as he enters what is a very weak center field market.

Outside of teammate Cody Bellinger, Grisham is the best option to roam the middle of the outfield, but that's not saying much when his chief competition is the likes of Harrison Bader and Cedric Mullins. For a while, it seemed like the club's best course of action would be to slap him with the qualifying offer and collect the draft pick when he signs elsewhere.

Now, though, that might not be the best path forward, thanks to a combination of factors, including the caliber of pick they'd receive.

Yankees should now know that extending qualifying offer to Trent Grisham is not a risk worth taking

The Yankees know now that, as a luxury tax-paying team, the pick they'd receive if Grisham were to reject the qualifying offer would fall after the fourth round of the draft was completed. While it would seem something is better than nothing, a fourth-rounder doesn't offset the risk they'd be assuming that he would simply accept the offer.

As a refresher, the qualifying offer this go around is worth $22 million on a one-year deal. For the 29-year-old Grisham, that might be an enticing proposition.

The Athletic's Jim Bowden (subscription required) pegged Grisham's next contract at two years, $30 million, while contract database Spotrac has him with an estimated market value of four years, $48 million. With numbers like those, a one-year, $22 million payday, and the chance to hit free agency again going into his age-30 season might be too good for him to pass up.

Going that route, should he repeat his 2025 performance, he'd enter the market with a strong chance to secure a long-term, big-money deal. However, even if he regressed to the sub-.200 batting average player who was only really good for the occasional dinger, he'd likely end up making close to what Bowden projects between the qualifying offer and a lesser deal the following offseason.

Essentially, for Grisham, there's little risk in accepting the deal should the club offer it. For the Yankees, though, there is. Not only is there the possibility that he regresses with the bat, but the club would need to weigh his value amid declining defensive performance.

A two-time Gold Glove winner. Grisham has been on a steady decline defensively the past couple of seasons. After posting 13 outs above average in 2022, he managed seven in 2023, two (in admittedly less playing time) in 2024, and -2 in 2025. His defensive runs saved marks are even more bleak. In 2022, he recorded 10 DRS just to see that number fall to one in 2023, zero in 2024, and -11 in 2025.

It was his glove work that propped up his value when he was a net-negative at the plate, so if he regresses offensively, it would appear that his defense could no longer bail him out.

This all means that the Yankees are in a rather precarious situation in center field. Bellinger will have a strong market, and if the bidding gets too hot, they might be forced to roll the dice on Grisham, or roll with the unknowns that in-house options Spencer Jones or Jasson Dominguez would provide.

What is clear, though, is that a $22 million commitment to Grisham wouldn't be the best way to go about fixing the mess that they've created.