The New York Yankees' five-man rotation appears to be set with Carlos Lagrange officially being knocked out of the running. It will be Max Fried and Cam Schlittler at the top, followed by Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, and Luis Gil. At least, that will be the case at some point in April.
Chris Kirschner of The Athletic points out that the way the schedule works out, the Yankees won't need the fifth starter until April 11, giving rise to the idea that Gil could be sent down for the first couple of weeks. Per Kirschner, it's something New York is strongly considering as concern grows with Gil's inability to get whiffs with his fastball, in addition to his overall uneven performance this spring.
They've been tinkering with his arm angle and release point trying to add deception, but if we're being honest, this is a problem that dates back to last season as well, when the whiff rate on his four-seamer dropped from 28.5% during his 2024 AL Rookie of the Year campaign to 18.8%. His strikeout rate also plummeted from 26.8% to 16.8%.
This doesn't seem like an easy fix. And if it were, why did they not rectify it before the postseason when they really needed Gil and watched the Toronto Blue Jays tee off on him during the ALDS?
Combined with Ryan Weathers looking like a complete and total mess, the Yankees look to be in real trouble. They'll get Carlos Rodón and then Gerrit Cole back at some point early in the season, but it's important to note that we've seen three different versions of Rodón over his first three seasons in pinstripes. Furthermore, we still don't know when Cole will be back and what to expect from him once he returns. One impressive spring inning from the 35-year-old doesn't change that.
Meanwhile, New York is in a perilous position. If the losses pile up in April and May, it might be hard to overcome. These early-season games count just as much as the ones down the stretch, and if you know the Yankees, you know a summer swoon is incoming. Not getting out to a big lead is how seasons like 2023 happen.
Four-man rotation rumors and Luis Gil's struggles make it clear the Yankees should've made a trade
A team could survive with a fifth starter whose electric stuff isn't necessarily harnessed, but having two such pitchers in the rotation is asking for trouble. That's part of the reason why all offseason the Yankees were rumored to be in the mix for a top-end starter on the trade market, like Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore, and others.
It might sound alarmist to say that this isn't a rotation that, as currently constructed and with Will Warren playing a crucial role, can confidently be counted on to lead a team to the playoffs. It isn't. The AL East is the most competitive division in the sport, so even though this won't be the unit's final form, it can do enough damage to put the Yankees far enough behind the pack that catching up becomes difficult.
The Yankees, at one point, seemed like a great match to acquire Peralta from the Brewers. Having an arm like that in place of Gil or Weathers would make you feel worlds better about where we currently stand.
Ironically, Gil seemed like the prime chip to get a deal done, as the thought was that Milwaukee was looking for controllable young arms. In light of deals for controllable arms with reputations for good stuff but limited or no track records, like those for Shane Baz, Mike Burrows, or even Weathers, Gil seemed to have immense trade value.
However, if he can't get his fastball straightened out quickly, he'll not only be a liability for New York, but we will see that potential trade value collapse, leaving the Yankees kicking themselves that they didn't cash him in for a more established rotation presence when they had the chance.
