Yankees fans should worry about another wrinkle besides David Bednar's velocity

With a 2-2 score in the top of the ninth against the Athletics on Wednesday, the New York Yankees went with the conventional wisdom when playing at home and called upon their closer, David Bednar. Fans were not completely filled with confidence.

Those who were worried proved to be justified. Bednar got himself into a jam right away, giving up a single to Nick Kurtz and a double to Shea Langeliers to set up a second and third situation. He'd strike out Tyler Soderstrom, but couldn't wiggle out of trouble, giving up a sacrifice fly to lose the lead and ultimately the game.

Bednar's velocity has been down in the early going, falling from 97.1 miles per hour on average last season to 95.6 miles per hour prior to his appearance Wednesday night. He topped out at 95.8 miles per hour and sat at 95.2 on average in the losing effort. He claims that this is normal in the early going for him, but it's worth watching.

More concerning than the velocity drop is how frequently the beefy right-hander has been called upon so far. He's thrown 6 1/3 innings and made six appearances over New York's first 11 games, and has often labored, averaging 23.70 pitches per outing.

Going to the well so often early could prevent his velocity from rebounding, as he says, and overuse is a big-time concern. An even greater question is how much Bednar can truly be relied upon.

The Yankees will learn a hard truth if they overuse David Bednar

Bednar was the lone bright spot in the Yankees' pen during the second half last year, posting a 2.19 ERA over 24 2/3 innings following the trade that brought him to the Bronx. Given how bad everyone else around him was, it was easy to feel a sense of confidence whenever he took the mound.

However, it's easy to overlook that Bednar was demoted to Triple-A by the Pirates last April because he pitched so poorly to kick off the season. That was on the heels of a 5.77 ERA performance in 2024, making the early-season slide seem like a continuation of his nosedive rather than a blip on the radar.

Some were encouraged by Bednar's Houdini act during the World Baseball Classic, but there's another side to that coin. The 31-year-old had to log a good number of high-stress innings earlier than most closers are used to, but even more worrisome was the fact that the cause of his escape artistry was his own ineffectiveness.

The important thing to understand is that, as good as he was when he first got here, he's not an elite closer. He can be very good, for sure, but he's not invincible. That means he can't be counted on to overcome adverse conditions the same way a truly elite fireman like Edwin Diaz or Mason Miller can.

Therefore, overusing him early can have a negative compounding effect where fatigue sets in, his velocity doesn't rebound, and he becomes less effective and/or risks injury. Even without the threat of overuse, there's a chance that Bednar disappoints this season.

They'll need the best of Bednar if they are to achieve their goals in 2026, and given the fact that he's already shakier than one might think, it makes sense not to throw extra obstacles in his path. Therefore, the Yankees need to be more judicious in their early-season usage of their closer. Otherwise, they might guarantee his failure down the road.