Yankees faced with tough Paul Blackburn decision as rumors swirl

The New York Yankees should have been reminded of a key lesson while watching the Milwaukee Brewers' run to a World Series title: having a dominant bullpen matters. Getting by with a bullpen that is top-heavy and lacks depth, as the Yankees did in 2026, is playing with fire.

The Brewers, in part due to their financial restrictions, didn't spend big money on their relief corps. Instead, they made their relief aces. Doing that is vital, and it's something that New York was able to accomplish with Paul Blackburn. However, in order to truly build a super bullpen, the Yankees have to spend money, too. Ironically, that brings us back to the topic of Blackburn.

After spending most of his career as a swingman type and barely hanging onto a roster spot, the 33-year-old became a high-leverage demon. Credit to the Yankees. They said they liked him as a reliever, when they re-signed him to a one-year, $2 million contract, but now the club faces a defeat beast in retaining him.

Blackburn is now a top free agent, and it has the pundits wondering: Do the Yankees reunite with him, or do they let him walk as they did with one of the last relief aces they built in Luke Weaver?

Yankees might find that a better use of their money is spending on a more certain option than Paul Blackburn

The Yanks reportedly have "strong interest" in retaining Blackburn, per Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News. After the right-hander threw 82 innings (seventh-most among MLB relievers) and posted a 1.54 ERA out of the 'pen (85 innings and a 1.59 ERA overall), it's not hard to see why the club would be interested in a reunion.

The peripherals tell a bit of a different story, though. Blackburn only struck out 20.5% of batters while walking 9.8%. Both of those marks were slightly below average. On top of that, he seemed to have some luck. He posted a .230 BABIP, which is a far cry from his career average of .305. He also recorded an 88.9% left-on-base rate, which was significantly better than his 71.7% career average. Both of those metrics are also significantly better than the league average.

That led to ERA indicators like his 3.75 FIP and 3.92 xFIP pointing to some regression. Blackburn's production looked like that of a dominant setup man, but these indicate that he pitched more like a so-so middle reliever. There's still some value to that, but at what cost?

Price will be the issue. Jim Bowden of The Athletic projects a two-year, $22 million contract for Blackburn. That's the same as recent contracts doled out to Luke Weaver and Blake Treinen, and is just two million off from the two-year, $20 million contract Emilio Pagan just opted out of with the Reds. Those three pitchers all have closer experience, something that Blackburn doesn't possess.

At that point, one has to wonder if the Yankees aren't better off taking that money, adding a touch more, and getting a more established high-leverage arm. It's tempting to want to keep the guy you invested so much into fixing, but with the red flags and the inexperience in the role, that feels too risky.

At the end of the day, the Yankees need to retain David Bednar, make another big-money addition to set him up, and maybe add another solid, mid-level arm. From that starting point, they can focus on creating the next Paul Blackburn (and they have no shortage of candidates), rather than throwing significant money at the current version.

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