Yankees could get best of both worlds if Cody Bellinger dominates in 2026 and 2027

Cody Bellinger's contract might have blown up the New York Yankees' 2026 payroll, but it might not be all bad. The reason his luxury tax number skyrocketed to $48.55 million this year has to do with the opt-outs and signing bonus the club was forced to give him in order to move him off of his seven-year demand.

It's easy to feel as if, even at five years, the $162.5 million (and $85 million over the first two campaigns) is an overpay. There are valid concerns over his performance and what the underlying data says, and those will only be more pronounced as he ages.

But as Chris Kirschner noted in his column for The Athletic (subscription required), the way this contract is structured could end up with the Yankees enjoying the best possible outcome.

The opt-out Yankees gave Cody Bellinger could actually help New York

The first of two opt-outs that Bellinger has comes after the 2027 season. As we've learned throughout this process, money is the primary motivator for the star outfielder. These opt-outs are designed to give him the option to leverage stellar performance into an even bigger payday, while providing him with the long-term security he's sought over the past several years.

Therefore, Kirschner's analysis of the situation is spot on:

"Bellinger signed a five-year, $162.5 million contract with the Yankees. They will pay him $85 million over the first two seasons, after which he can exercise one of his two opt-outs. At that point, Bellinger would have $77.5 million remaining over three years. Unless he declines dramatically or is injured, there is a good chance he exercises his opt-out and tries to beat a three-year, $77.5 million deal on the open market."

While he's stabilized somewhat from his 2022 nadir, which ended with the 2019 NL MVP being non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bellinger has still had his peaks and valleys.

His 2023 campaign with the Chicago Cubs made him look like a superstar once again, but his 2024 follow-up resulted in just 2.1 fWAR, which isn't bad, but is more in line with what you can expect from an average starter. For reference, Ryan McMahon turned in a similar 1.9 fWAR performance last year, counting his time in both Colorado and New York.

The Yankees were able to acquire him because the Cubs believed that the risk of simply average performance at the cost of $25 million wasn't worth it, and were desperate to dump his salary as a result.

But if Bellinger can string together two dominant years, the Yankees might have something. At his best, Bellinger can be a worthy sidekick to Aaron Judge and could put New York in a position to actually win something.

However, the underlying concerns in his profile — unimpressive bat speed, poor exit velocities, and alarmingly low hard-hit rates — will only become more severe risks as he ages. If he performs well enough to believe he can score more than $77.5 million over three years following the 2027 season, the Yankees will escape his age-32 through age-34 seasons, where that risk could be more pronounced. That would save them from another aging option clogging the roster and would allow them to spend on younger member in the free agent class.

There's a chance things could go horribly wrong, but the odds seem stacked in favor of Bellinger opting out, which would mean the Yankees got exactly what they needed. And if we get a World Series in 2026 or 2027? It'd be the ultimate victory.