Yankees 2027 lineup's Steamer projections make absolutely no sense

2026 was proof of the gravity that Aaron Judge has on the New York Yankees lineup. Heading into the year with largely the same crew intact in a lineup that was at the top of the 2025 leaderboards in nearly every offensive category, the unit slumped without the three-time MVP. Weak isn't the right word to describe the group; rather "top-heavy" is a spot-on label.

So while we like what we've seen from Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Luis Garcia Jr., we hope that the Yankees go into the offseason with plans to upgrade various spots behind these stars. That's why when the first batch of Steamer projections dropped, we found them ... curious.

Rice's projection sees him taking a step back to 2025's marks with a 135 projected wRC+, down from the 149 he posted in 2026. While that's a reasonable take solely looking at the data, Rice's cada día es lo mismo work ethic would make one believe that as long as he's healthy, he'll continue to ascend.

Bellinger and Garcia Jr. are both projected for 118 wRC+ performances. For Bellinger, that's exactly where his career average stands and seems like a rock-solid bet. Garcia Jr. put up a 124 mark in 2026, so this is a slight slide, but again, completely reasonable.

Youngsters Spencer Jones and George Lombard Jr. are both projected to be about league-average, give or take. Jones recorded a 106 wRC+ over 86 games this year and is now projected to post a 103 wRC+ in 2026. Lombard Jr. is projected to jump from a 93 mark in 2026 to a 99 mark in 2027. With so little data, we can't quibble much here, either. Development isn't always linear, so one future building block taking a tiny step back while the other takes a small step forward is likely.

From there, though, things start getting weird.

2027 Yankees projections are wildly bullish on Ryan McMahon and Austin Wells, pessimistic on Aaron Judge

It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Yankees will try to ditch Ryan McMahon this winter, but if they don't, can we really expect him to produce a nearly league-average line, as his predicted 93 wRC+ indicates? He put up a 78 wRC+ this year and was one of the worst hitters to get somewhat regular playing time in 2026.

As for Austin Wells, his prediction could be a bit more reasonable. He managed a 77 wRC+ in 2026, but that was based on a tale of two seasons. The 27-year-old backstop posted a 41 wRC+ in the first half, and a 124 wRC+ in the second half. If we believe the cervical headaches that sidelined him in June were the root cause of his struggles, then his projected mark of 99 isn't out of the question.

In total, a league-average bat at catcher and above-average defensive performance would make Wells a pretty valuable piece, considering the nature of the position. Maybe he doesn't need to be replaced after all.

Finally, there's Aaron Judge. From 2022-2025, he had put up a wRC+ over 200 in three of the four seasons. The 161 wRC+ Steamer projects him to produce in 2027 would've been the second-best wRC+ in the majors in 2026, but it's also a sizable step back for one of the game's all-time greats. On the one hand, this just highlights how otherworldly Judge's peak has been. On the other, it could foreshadow the start of the 34-year-old's decline.

Ultimately, while these are fun to look at, they're not incredibly telling. What projection systems like Steamer do is plug things into an algorithm and attempt to account for variables like the aging curve in order to predict future performance. In cases like Jones and Lombard Jr., there's not enough data to be incredibly accurate. In the case of Judge, his injury this year looms large. In the case of McMahon and Wells, well, the computer just went wild with those.

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