Why it's one year too late for a Yankees-Luis Arraez experiment

While it feels as if every year we're talking about the New York Yankees needing to diversify their lineup, move away from whiff-fueled sluggers, and add more contact hitters to their lineup, the calls for change have grown stronger this year.

Maybe it's because the Yankees put forth the worst offensive effort in franchise history in the ALDS. Maybe it's because the Brewers are taking the Dodgers to task, with Milwaukee's small-ball approach shining, leading Derek Jeter to proclaim that this is the way baseball is supposed to be played. Maybe it's just the fan base growing tired of the repeated October futility.

New York has often shied away from making this kind of dramatic change. Sometimes it's been due to a lack of options that fit the high-contact, low-strikeout bill on the free-agent market. Often, it's because the analytics say that power wins, strikeouts are (mostly) irrelevant, and over time, pop wins out. The problem is, time runs out quickly in short postseason series.

This offseason presents the best opportunity for the Yankees to change course. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a free agent, and his postseason play did little to motivate the club to feel that his return is necessary. The outside criticism of the lightning rod second baseman might as well be coming from within his own clubhouse.

While Jazz, whose 13th percentile whiff rate is emblematic of everything wrong with New York's lineup, is as good as gone, a perfect pivot towards maximizing batting average and contact skills is hitting the free-agent market with the ability to play the same position in the form of three-time batting champ Luis Arraez.

The Luis Arraez solution is too risky for the Yankees to undertake

Arraez has been a long-sought-after solution for the Yankees by fans and pundits alike. Every year, he hits free agency, and the cries grow louder. This year's trade deadline saw them reach a fever pitch.

Now the Yankees have an opening, whereas before, fitting in the extremely strikeout-resistant infielder would have required an awkward juggling act. Unfortunately, despite the stars seeming to align, Brian Cashman should pass.

Despite a resume that includes four All-Star selections and two Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger awards, in addition to the batting crowns, when Arraez hit free agency last winter, the only thing he could muster was a one-year, $12 million contract. That was ironically a pay decrease from the $14 million he had made in his final year of arbitration. Despite his various honors and unique skill set, he's been traded three times.

Things are going to be different this offseason. Arraez is in line to get paid. Spotrac pegs his market value at three years and $54 million. A weak free-agent class could leave him even more flush with cash (thanks, again, to Chisholm's inadequacy). And whoever ponies up those dollars will likely regret it.

The 29-year-old had previously developed a reputation as a butcher in the field and had been moved off second base. It was only under the tutelage of Ron Washington, renowned as one of the best infield coaches in the game, with the Giants, that he became a solid defender; his glove regressed again when he was traded to the Phillies.

His bat fell off, too, and he hit just .278/.309/.369, good for a wRC+ of 82, in the City of Brotherly Love. And that's the problem with Arraez. His value is tied almost exclusively to his ability to dunk singles in between the infielders and the outfielders. He doesn't walk, he doesn't hit for any sort of power, he has no speed, and his defensive value has always been limited. While he rarely strikes out, if the ball isn't finding holes for him, he's dead in the water.

On a one-year deal, rolling the dice on him could make sense, but committing multiple years to him at a salary that's approaching $20 million? That's a recipe for regret. The Yankees need to add balance to their lineup, but Luis Arraez is not the savior they seek.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow