Where does Marcus Stroman fit in Yankees' pitching plans after bleak rehab outing?

The saga between Marcus Stroman and the New York Yankees has had more twists and turns in 2025 than a cheesy '80s soap opera. The melodramatic pendulum swinging back and forth between "will they," and "won't they" is once again in full force, as the Yankees were recently dealt another blow to the rotation.

Stroman has gone from afterthought, to critical rotation piece, back to afterthought, and then to the injured list, all since spring training began. It's been dizzying. Now, on the verge of a return from a lengthy IL stint, perhaps he's coming back at the perfect time given, the injury to Ryan Yarbrough.

Of course, his third rehab start at Double-A Somerset - and the first since the Yarbrough news dropped - couldn't have gone any worse. More melodrama! Though it's unfair to judge him too harshly on the back of one bad rehab start where he's clearly still knocking off the rust, in the greater context of Stroman's Yankee tenure - and, most specifically, his limited 2025 sample - it's fair to question his place on the pitching staff.

As you recall, 2024 saw Stroman start hot and then fade hard. He posted a 3.69 ERA in April and a 1.67 mark in May, logging 69.1 innings through that point. After that, he looked to be toast, with a 5.13 ERA in June, a 5.50 ERA in July, a 4.56 mark in August, and an especially putrid 8.80 ERA in September to close out the 2024 regular season.

The 2025 sample has been much smaller, but even worse, with three starts totaling 9.1 innings and an 11.57 ERA before he succumbed to the knee injury. That's why his poor showing at the inflection point of his rehab assignment is more concerning than your typical rusty start.

Marcus Stroman's place in the Yankees' pitching plans may only be temporary

The state of the Yankees' rotation today is much different than the state it was in when Stroman went down at the beginning of the season. Max Fried has taken the leap from ace to legitimate Cy Young candidate. Carlos Rodón has finally shown up as the reliable No. 2 in Year 3 of his six-year pact. Clarke Schmidt has been very solid since returning from the IL. Until his injury, Yarbrough had proven to be a godsend since the Yankees snatched him up following his ejection from the Blue Jays.

Stroman might not even be an upgrade over Will Warren. The youngster has battled some bouts of inconsistency, but provides far more upside while also making the case to be the better option between the two right now.

Then there's Luis Gil's impending return from the IL to consider. Stroman should beat the reigning AL Rookie of the Year back to the 26-man roster, but barring a setback, Gil's return isn't too far off in the future. Once the 27-year-old is back, the top four in the Yankee rotation will be Fried, Rodón, Schmidt, and Gil -- leaving just that fifth spot up for grabs.

Factor in that, while oblique injuries can be tricky, Yarbrough probably won't be out for an extended period of time. This makes Stroman's future that much more dicey. All else being equal, Warren provides more upside than the 34-year-old Stroman, who is clearly a goner in the offseason once his contract expires. Yarbrough, when he returns, fills the swingman role significantly better, too.

That will all take some time, though. Stroman, right now, has a head start on Gil and Yarbrough to return, and will likely have at least a couple of weeks in the rotation before he starts to feel the roster squeeze to make his case.

If he performs well, Stroman could find himself increasing his trade value and auditioning for his next club as a likely candidate to be moved at the trade deadline. If he falls flat, he's likely to find himself banished to the bullpen, an afterthought in the Yankees' plans unless another rotation catastrophe strikes.