Tatsuya Imai's deal with Astros is a blessing in disguise for Yankees

For New York Yankees fans hoping for an upgrade to the starting rotation this offseason, Tatsuya Imai represented something of the last hope, at least as far as free agents are concerned. Framber Valdez is not really a fit, and adding another lefty to the rotation would be overkill. Ditto for former Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez.

Jack Curry warned fans that the Yankees were not a true contender for Imai's services, but many didn't listen. Instead, they chose to dream about Imai's high-octane heater taking the mound every fifth day in the Bronx.

Seeing Imai sign for three years, $54 million (with the possibility to escalate to $63 million) is disappointing when he was thought to receive a deal in the $150 million range. Seeing him land with an old nemesis, one who was thought to be too broke to do anything of consequence this winter, is infuriating.

Despite all of that, this is a good outcome for the Yankees and something of a blessing in disguise.

Tatsuya Imai signing with the Astros shouldn't have Yankees concerned

Imai's contract comes with an opt-out after each year, and that has significance for multiple reasons. First, it means that no one was truly sold enough to give him a long-term deal at the price he wanted. That's an important note, because while what we have to evaluate Imai is limited, these teams have been scouting him in person for a good long while.

The consensus is that Imai has a chance to be good, and potentially elite. But he's not Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He might not even be Roki Sasaki, and we saw how much Sasaki struggled to adapt, posting a 4.46 ERA in 2025.

Imai has struggled with walks every year except 2025. His strikeout numbers have been good, but never truly great, even with him putting his best foot forward this past season. The competition in Japan is less than it is in MLB, but the game is also played differently in NPB, with a greater emphasis being placed on contact and far fewer true power threats. All of that factors into the equation.

They say there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, but that's not what this is. For Imai, this is only a one-year deal if he performs, but if he doesn't, this is a $63 million commitment as long as he hits 100 innings pitched in 2026. That's not a high bar to clear.

That's how this is a blessing in disguise for the Yankees. They can let the Astros assume all the risk, and if Imai blows it out of the water, the bloated contracts for players like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Christian Walker will ensure that they can't afford to retain him. The Yankees can then swoop in and pry away a sure thing. But if he falters, Houston is stuck with him, and they really can't afford another negative asset on their balance sheet.

It's easy to see the money and think the Yankees should have easily matched that, but Imai is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, and while the Yankees could afford to take that risk, they don't have to. If Imai's as good as advertised, they can still bring him to the Bronx as early as 2027.