Subtle Ben Rice adjustment should make Yankees believe he'll hit a new gear in 2026

One decision facing the New York Yankees this offseason will be where to play Ben Rice in 2026. Is he a catcher? A first baseman? A mix of both? What isn't in question is that Rice will be a force in the middle of the Yankees' lineup.

Rice had shown flashes during his 50-game major league stint in 2024, but ultimately was mostly overmatched, hitting just .171/.264/.349. That made him a major concern when dual tennis elbows delayed the start of Giancarlo Stanton's season and forced Rice into the lineup as a regular presence at DH.

However, Rice quickly became one of the most productive non-Aaron Judge hitters in the lineup. By the end of the season, he, and not more highly-touted youngsters like Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells, became the franchise's next rising star. What got him there was a remarkably simple tweak that produced big dividends, and might foreshadow yet another gear in his future.

The small tweak that made Ben Rice the Yankees' most pleasant 2025 surprise could propel him to new heights in 2026

Rice credits his breakout to a subtle change. He realized that his natural inclination was to step towards the plate, meaning his front leg would land in a closed position. While that might have helped him handle some outside pitches, it left him in a poor position to handle everything else.

That was the way he had always hit, and therefore he knew the habit would be hard to break, so he leaned into it. Instead, he opened his stance so that when he inevitably stepped towards the plate, he was more square at the point of attack.

The result was a .255/.337/.499 line with 26 homers and a .358 wOBA. As great as that line was, it pales in comparison to his expected numbers.

Rice ranked in the 90th percentile or higher in nearly every underlying metric. His average exit velocity of 93.3 miles per hour was in the 95th percentile. His 56.1% hard hit rate ranked in the 97th percentile. His barrel percentage of 15.2% was good for a 92nd percentile finish.

All of that gave him an expected batting average of .299, an expected slugging percentage of .581, and an xwOBA of .410. Those expected numbers would have put him in the MVP conversation. For context, Cal Raleigh slugged .589 with a .384 wOBA.

One of the age-old debates between stat nerds and traditionalists is the value of these expected stats versus the actual results. That debate has more merit with players who excel in a couple of areas, but in the in-between times disappear for large stretches of time. With Rice, that isn't the case.

Additionally, his minor league history shows that despite a less-than-elite pedigree as a former 12th-round pick, he's always found ways to produce. Rice regularly posted wOBA numbers of .400 or better throughout his minor league career, and that was before he opened his stance.

Now that he has made this tweak, it shouldn't be unreasonable to see him ascend beyond what he did in 2025. The reason is, he isn't actually doing anything different. Instead, he's just maximizing what has always worked for him.

One last point that should give you confidence is the fact that Rice's expected stats and underlying metrics from 2024 mirror his actuals in 2025 pretty closely. Despite his struggles, his expected slugging percentage was .462, and his xwOBA was .342. On top of that, his exit velocity was tick above average while his barrel rate was 15.6%, nearly identical to his 2025 mark.

Given the gigantic leap from 2024 to 2025 and the incredibly small and sustainable adjustment, his 2024 expected stats foreshadowed his 2025 results, and his strong track record of minor league excellence, it's a pretty safe bet that 2025 was just the beginning of Rice's ascension to stardom.