Spotrac's contract prediction for Cody Bellinger will have Yankees fans torn

One of the hottest topics that Brian Cashman and the New York Yankees will have to address when the curtain rises on the winter is what to do with Cody Bellinger this offseason. The former NL MVP was a key force in the lineup and brought with him some skills that are tough to replace.

Bellinger's athleticism, versatility, contact prowess, and ability to not just handle, but dominate lefties were all crucial to the operation. In many regards, these were traits the Yankees' roster lacked, even with him in the fold. With him opting out, New York is staring at the possibility of losing all of that, with no easy way forward to replace what he brings to the table.

Unfortunately, many other teams will be eyeing Bellinger as well, which some believe could drive his market to the moon. Spotrac is projecting a six-year, $182.7 million deal for the 30-year-old OF/1B, making this a truly difficult call.

Cody Bellinger's massive contract prediction will have Yankees fans divided

That projected contract would come out to a $30.4 million average annual value, which is important because that is what will count towards the luxury tax. As good as Bellinger was in 2025, is he really worth over $30 million a year on a deal that would carry him into his late-30s?

After all, this is a player who was non-tendered by the Dodgers, responded with a great year with the Cubs, then followed that up with a much more pedestrian showing that landed him with the Yankees in a salary dump. Is it truly worth giving him such a lavish contract then?

There have been quality of contact concerns with Bellinger for years. Even in 2025, he ranked in the 26th percentile in hard hit rate and the 24th percentile in average exit velocity. His expected slugging percentage was .436 - not a terrible number, but a far cry from the .480 he actually put up. Bellinger makes his living by squaring up the ball, but if that skill should erode with age, you end up with something that looks far more like the 2024 version, when he posted a .751 OPS.

That has led to some dissension in the media ranks. After all, if the Yankees are going to spend big for this sort of skillset, why not supercharge it and go after Kyle Tucker instead? Tucker is younger and will cost significantly more, but he's also the better overall player.

Another scenario some believe would be a better alternative is to let Bellinger walk, then hit the trade market to land Steven Kwan of the Cleveland Guardians. Kwan isn't the perfect Bellinger replacement, but he does a lot of the same things well, while coming with two more years of team control, making him the budget-friendly option (at least monetarily).

Or there's the nuclear option. The Yankees could simply throw caution to the wind and sign both Bellinger and Tucker. That would require a significant about-face from the organization with regard to its stance on crossing the final luxury tax threshold, but there's a way to make both players fit the roster.

With so many different scenarios, the case for and against re-signing Bellinger isn't cut and dry, especially once we start talking about the kind of money he's projected to get. The arguments on either side are solid, so wise fans may want to start doing their due diligence on alternatives.