When facing an opt-out decision entering the offseason, Cody Bellinger had to weigh remaining in a place he seemed to enjoy, without risking the rigors of the offseason, against testing the market - possibly returning, possibly not. Yankees fans, no strangers to capitalism, were completely unsurprised when he dissolved his contract and entered the market.
New York is likely the favorite to bring him back, but it's going to take a while. Of course it will. This is how the market works these days. The power of friendship never overcomes the almighty dollar. Hell, even Gerrit Cole briefly shredded his contract last offseason before the Yankees whispered to him and he erased that choice. In the modern game, if a player has a one-year option or the shot at three or four (or more) paydays, that player automatically chooses the unknown. That goes without saying.
Unless you're Shane Bieber, who'll be returning to the Toronto Blue Jays for one year and $16 million without testing the market for even one second.
Bieber's situation is different from Bellinger's and the decisions faced by many others, of course. He's recently surgically repaired, coming off a healthy summer and nothing more. Theoretically, though, that would've made Bieber even more inclined to squeeze a little long-term security out of this winter's momentum. There's a lockout looming in 2027. No one knows what paydays will look like, by that point. There could be a salary cap. There could be a floor, with teams like the Pirates and Twins desperate to splurge. Most players sitting precariously would prefer multiple years at a similar value, even without a raise. Bieber was due both.
And yet he and his wife Kara took their family off the board early, preferring to help Toronto with their efforts and answer a crucial question long before the offseason even begins. It certainly seems like they did so because of the Blue Jays' incredible culture, a light they don't want to see go out after just one devastating October.
thinking about how shane bieber’s wife, kara posted this. the biebers really love toronto 🥹 https://t.co/kNLFLqoDNy pic.twitter.com/s84UnUrchF
— amira (@amirawithluv) November 5, 2025
Shane Bieber chose the Toronto Blue Jays and took a discount, which should scare the Yankees
Bieber's decision could very well be the canary in the coal mine. Nobody wants to leave this Toronto locker room. No 2025 Blue Jay wants to leave the city in a state of shock. Bieber doesn't care if it's one year or in perpetuity - he's not leaving his guys. And if the chemistry is that strong - just like it seems to be in Boston, where Trevor Story also opted in, feeling he owed it to the franchise that believed in him - the Yankees might be falling even further behind.
In no world did Bellinger opting out feel surprising enough to even raise an eyebrow. But watching two division rivals on the rise be able to hang onto their flock, against the better judgment of the masses, should certainly make you wonder if the Yankees have a path back to being the team that nobody wants to risk leaving.
Or, to put it another way, "Daaaaa Yankees lose."
