Rival scout's incendiary take on Red Sox-Yankees playoff matchup hinges on Willson Contreras

Any New York Yankees fan who isn't fearing the Boston Red Sox in a shortened Wild Card series isn't approaching the playoffs with the right mentality. This is not to claim the version of the Red Sox that went on a 32-5 stretch is bound to show up, or that the Yankees won't be bringing their bats to October this year. It's just ... reality. Nobody should be confident against anyone in a best-of-three. Lose one game to an ace and your season's teetering on the brink. The Yankees are ... something like a 60-40 favorite on paper in this set, especially at home, but the games aren't played on paper. Just cross your fingers they aren't played at Fenway, either.

No anxious fan needed to hear this reality emphasized by an independent third party, but one rival scout went on the record this week that he believes the Sox match up well with the Yankees (and Rays, for that matter).

As Pat Ragazzo recounted on FanSided.com, the scout's view is, "The Red Sox are a really tough matchup for the Yankees with their left-handed pitching depth, especially if (Garrett) Crochet returns as a bullpen arm. Their pitching is loaded and their bullpen is special. (The) offense has some holes, but (Ceddanne) Rafaela makes a big difference when he comes back (from the IL).”

And therein lies the problem - Boston has been much more pedestrian offensively lately. Add in Erik Miller's command issues and Aroldis Chapman's injury worries, and their lefty pipeline might be running a bit dry. If their offense slugs, it'll be hard for the Yankees to match up. But if these are razor-thin, low-scoring games, the Yankees probably have more hope ... especially if Willson Contreras is hobbled. And that's about to be the most important thing we're keeping watch for this week.

If Willson Contreras injury lingers, the Yankees' odds vs. the Red Sox will shift

Contreras was drilled in the hand by a pitch while representing the tying run in the eighth inning of Boston's finale in Texas on Thursday. He groused after the game about pitchers continuing to target him, but no hurler in their right mind is trying to brush him back in a two-run game. We digress.

The Sox slugger initially feared a fracture, and said he felt numbness akin to other fractures he's had in the past. Initial X-Rays were negative, but Boston went through the same charade with Curtis Mead in recent weeks, and those close to the Sox admitted Contreras' swelling hadn't gone all the way down yet. He's day-to-day for now, but that could extend itself at any moment.

If Rafaela returns and Contreras remains intact, Boston has the formula to defeat the Yankees. If the Sox lose one key offensive cog just as another one is elevated, that could tilt the matchup once again. All eyes are on Contreras less than two weeks out from this short-series clash of the titans.

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