Predicting the Yankees' reported contract offer to Juan Soto after latest update

And here we go. Late Monday night, it was reported five teams officially made offers to superstar free agent Juan Soto. If you've been following the news somewhat consistently up until this point, you can probably guess who they are.

Yes, Steve Cohen's New York Mets are in the mix. So are the hated Boston Red Sox. Somehow, the Toronto Blue Jays are still hanging around. The Los Angeles Dodgers have made a somewhat unexpected appearance. And, of course, the New York Yankees are looking to retain one of the most prized talents of this generation.

But what do any of these offers look like? Previous reports have suggested Scott Boras, Soto's agent, wants to break some sort of average annual value record (likely with contracts in excess of three years). There might only be two teams equipped to break the AAV record, offer above $550 million, and dish out 12 or more years. Well, most teams could actually do it, but only two on this list might feel comfortable doing it given their current financial situations.

We'd wager the Mets and Red Sox are the best positioned to give Soto the closest thing to a blank check. We could be wrong, but that's our guess.

The Dodgers? They have a packed payroll with Shohei Ohtani's $700 million contract leading the way. The Blue Jays largest contract in franchise history is the six-year, $150 million deal they gave to George Springer after the 2018 season, so we'll believe a record-breaking offer from them when we see it.

Then there's the Yankees, who have a bloated payroll of their own in addition to roster construction concerns that will keep them from going above and beyond to satiate Boras and Soto's desires.

Predicting New York Yankees' free agent contract for Juan Soto

It's doubtful we see Soto sign for anything below $500 million based on the chatter and projections. In terms of the ceiling? We really don't know. Objectively, it would feel insane if Soto came anywhere close to Ohtani's 10-year, $700 million contract, given Ohtani can pitch and hit at an MVP level in addition to being an international star that generates millions beyond what he's paid.

There's also the likelihood that the Yankees have already drawn a line in the sand with how high they'll go, which is never good when you're battling for one of the best hitters of an era with Boras shopping him around. That's why we're predicting Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman won't go beyond 11 years and $528 million at this juncture.

Why that number? Well, since Soto will absolutely not be topping Ohtani's $70 million AAV before deferrals (unless some team is crazy enough to offer him five or fewer years at $71 million per), Boras will have to settle with exceeding Ohtani's luxury tax figure of $46.06 million.

The proposed 11-year, $528 million deal gives Soto a $48 million AAV and will take him through his age-36 season, allowing him to pursue a legacy with the best franchise in the sport (from a historical perspective). Not only that, but we'll let some logic prevail here, and say that the length of the deal will prevent him from potentially affecting that legacy. Why? Because when his play inevitably declines, it's easy to see how the discourse might turn toxic if he's making what's likely still close to a record AAV despite no longer being anywhere close to an MVP-caliber player.

We're not saying this is the Yankees' final offer. Because that's subject to change over the next 2-3 weeks. Plus, we'd venture to guess the Mets' first offer is not their best offer. For as much as everybody loves to talk about Cohen wielding all the financial power, he's not going to bid against himself and set a never-before-seen market before knowing what other owners are thinking. It's just not going to happen.

There will be revisions along the way, but we really don't see the Yankees going beyond 12 years and $600 million ($50 million AAV). And even that feels like a stretch. For now, we'll stick with the conservative prediction and hope for the best, even if it might be completely off the mark.