After starting the All-Star Game, Gerrit Cole needed a few days before he could start again for the New York Yankees.
Today is that day in the rubber match with the Colorado Rockies out in Denver. New York is 50-43 and in fourth place in the AL East while Colorado is last in the NL West at 35-58.
Cole is 9-2 in 19 starts with a 2.85 ERA on the year and the Yankees will need him to be great as the Red Sox are breathing down their necks in the division. Chase Anderson will make his 11th start for the Rockies and is 0-4 with a 6.89 ERA in his previous 10.
It’s no surprise that the Yankees are the favorites with their ace on the mound. Let’s see where we can find some value and look at the odds.
Yankees vs. Rockies odds, run line and total
Yankees vs. Rockies prediction and pick
Gerrit Cole has been fantastic this year, and that’s not a surprise, but he’s a pitcher that I’m definitely going to be fading him in the second half. At least until the regression that I’m certain is coming, hits. Cole’s strikeout rate has dropped off from 33% in 2021 and 32% in 2022 to 25.8% this season.
That is by far his lowest since his time with the Pirates when they were forcing him to throw sinkers instead of 98 at the top of the zone.
Cole’s pitch usage hasn’t changed from last season, but his velocity and spin rate of his fastball is down and his whiff rate has dropped 14% on his slider and 13% on his curveball. He isn’t the dominant strikeout pitcher that he’s been for the past few years and that’s a problem.
Cole’s FIP is 3.43 and his expected ERA is 3.84.
The Rockies aren’t the type of offense that you’d necessarily expect to punish Cole, but Colorado is a place where strikeouts are important and with the ball in play a lot in the thin air, this could be a bad start for Cole.
However, that doesn’t mean a bad day for the Yankees. They’re facing Chase Anderson and should be able to give Cole more than enough run support. I’ll take the over and keep an eye on Cole in the second half.
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